magic journal of doom

well well well,

its Friday again, maybe around of golf this weekend. This week have been a good week for researching and getting back in the swing(trade) of things. I spend the week getting into position and reshuffling my position. here is the break down for today and my holding for the weekend.

Today

bought back 4 APRIL 7.5 calls@1.8 of ADLR debit -$326
sold 1000 ADLR@9.02 NET $474
bought 5000@4.41 of DNDN

Holding for the weekend

1000 ADLR
-10 APRIL 7.5 call ADLR
5000 DNDN
-50 APRIL 5 call DNDN

my OTM DNDN option have gone agaisnt me a little so my account looks flat but time is on my side on this one. since I hold the underlying my cost basis is 4.41-.75=3.66. DNDN raise above my call I get the premium+ (.59X5000), if/when my shares get called away. if it goes against me I have downside protection from the premium till 3.66 but I will be stop out way before then of course.
 

Attachments

DNDN started out well today then fizzle at the close. The more I look at the data on this baby the more I think this is a biotech stock ready to implode. none of the primary endpoint was met on the trials, trial population was less then 250 on both trials. statistical significant on the secondary endpoint was NOT achieve by combining 2 different trials. and i got this quote from the latest 10-K
"Survival was not originally a primary or secondary endpoint in either of these studies. Neither study achieved statistical significance on its prespecified primary endpoint, time to disease progression. In addition, our D9902A Phase 3 study did not show a statistically significant improvement in survival over placebo in a log-rank analysis"

That raise a few red flag even if I was a gambling man. This is from their 10-K!!! so its not an opinion.

sold 500@8.90 of ADLR
sold 3500@4.85 of DNDN
Sold 25 APRIL 5 calls@1.35 of DNDN
 
another seesaw day for DNDN, it was trading in a tight range all day even after the FDA prelim doc was posted for the panel meeting. Its not a cut and dry approval or not, more like give us more supporting data. I finished unwinding my long position today with some profit. I am looking into CYPB as my next target. Also AGIX is still in trader heaven with the amount of volume being toss around(14.1 mil today).

sold to close 1500@4.83 of DNDN.
 
nothing going on but a few speculation on DNDN hello 25 mil shares traded hands. I hope those retail investor that watch CNBC actually read the FDA report. They might be a world of hurt on Friday.

I am looking forward to tomorrow FDA panel meeting.
 
Nothing to do today but wait for the FDA panel to do their thing. Its an all day event so DNDN is probably halted all day. If some how they release the stock for trading in the after hour its going to be wild to say the least. I am looking forward to a mix respond or negative respond, if they look at the material by the book. I read and reread the briefing document, and there is no way in my mind they can get a majority in favor of this therapy http://www.fda.gov/ohrms/dockets/ac/cber07.htm#CellularTissueGeneTherapies

there is an outside chance that they might be in favor if stats from a larger trial is available. But that is also a good thing for my position. delay or lenghten the time to approval is the second best case to an outright rejection.

well let see what happen at 4:00PM eastern time stay tune.
 
Wow DNDN was vote 17-0 on safety and 13-4 on efficancy.

The safety vote was expected but the second vote was a little unexpected but they did change the wording to the last question before they vote from showing efficancy to might show. There were several concern raise by the panel even though they vote yes. They want more data from the on going phase III. IMHO the FDA will give an approval letter with a condition of follow up data.

I not sure how the market react to this news. the price will definitely go up but by how much. Do the long want to dump shares ASAP, the short cover ASAP or if they are hedge then it isnt prudent to cover for a lost before the may 15 FDA meeting. I know for sure the IV will flat line and I'll buy back my call for a lost of -1 per contract. live and learn..:)
 
Wow!!! has it been a year since I have some time off from real work. Once again I have some down time before another contract comes along. Here's a little recap of my time off, 3 month working at ITT, 6 month working at LLL, 3 month of babysitting. Yeah got married and had a baby boy. Now I got 2 big babies but life marches on.

I had liquidated my account at IB last year because they started to charge more fees because I dont see a reason of paying them when I have no time to trade. I will open an account at ThinkorSwim, which is in the process. I really like their platform after I preview it for 2 weeks now. I can automate my signals!!!!
 
not much to do this morning but do some research and watch some charts. I am still focusing my trading in Pharma/biotech arena. I found through the years of trading that it is better to specialize then be a jack of all trades so to speak. For the past three years or so I am most successful in the Pharma/biotech stock then any other I ventured in. Well that's probably because most of my research and interest is aim at.

This sector can make you or break you in term of money and psychologically. I had account blow out and had account made good money but I never trade above myself. I admit I do some directional biased trade but that is the nature of the biotech sector. Some people might even say I got lucky or bad luck but if you know the risk of the trade and can accept them then it is an informed choice.

I think I made a good choice with thinkorswim over the other brokers even though they dont have the best coms/fees but their overall package is better then the other deep discounters out there in my opinion. I am a swing trader so I wont have the volume to beat IB fees. some months I might trade more and other where I dont trade at all and it'll average out. Also ToS platform let me do more with less which I like. I also have a scottrade account for longterm holdings which wont be mention in this thread(or rarely). Its funny but scottrade is great for this no main fees/no inactivity fee and if you buy/hold 2000+ shares at a time the commission is really cheap. Also I even get extra income by selling covered calls!!! well thats all you can do there covered call, buy calls, buy puts.

I am planning to fund the account with 10K to start and if I dont get contract work within 3 months. I'll probably put 15K more and run my system. My goal for this journal is to document my trading, thoughts and of course make money.
 
Who's here think the ToS ACH setup is the most time consuming of any other broker. Me!!!!!. They make you email them the debit amount even though you can enter the amount in the penson interface within their site.

Not much happening today just screening my option plays and looking at diff strats for the stock I am following.

several stock is setting up nicely for a ratio backspread. This is my favorite strat for biotech stock with pending FDA decision within the expiration month. limited risK/lost, unlimited gain.
 
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