To be honest, I think I will stop trading index futures or slow down significantly. I've made money in CL, GC, NQ. but NQ has been tough. Win some and lose some. Not very consistent.
Made a lot of progress, but feel like there's so much more to go...
- Thread starter trader99
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To be honest, I think I will stop trading index futures or slow down significantly. I've made money in CL, GC, NQ. but NQ has been tough. Win some and lose some. Not very consistent.
yeah we all have some kinks. i am also not immune to lot of shortcomings. Always striving to better the shortcomings. Sometimes the lessons are learnt the hard way.
Just did some quick P&L summary and analytics.
So far my best trades are GC , CL , and stock options. My worse trades, by a large margin, are in NQ and MNQ.
Given that analytics insight, should I stop trading the index futures?
And my swing trades profits are multiples of my daytrade profits. But I still like to daytrade since I feel like I can control the risk better. Might be illusory.
But the real issues isn't really daytrade vs swing trading(that's for another discussion). I've successfully daytraded GC, CL, NG, and stock options. I just have not successfully daytraded index futures. I mean I have made money here and there. But net net I am down. Way down.
Seems that you can probably find a pattern as to why...It seems to me it has to do with the volatility rate on the index futures, which have been on overdrive for much of last year, and a lot of this year so far.
The others tend to move more "surely" in one direction or the other, and at a slower pace.
Perhaps. What are your best instruments?
I think the real reason is that I still like to countertrend on the index futures with bad results. not sure why. It's a psychological bias. Maybe best to stay away from that. And just trade instruments that I can do well...
Also, I find it's difficult to short index futures and make money. Even on supposedly trendy down days. As soon as you short, then it SPIKES up.
So you are forced to go long all the time until the bottom falls out then you exit at bad prices. Or as soon as you go long on a supposed uptrend, it pullbacks fast and nasty. You get out for a small then it zooms back up.
Very few nice smooth trendy days.
I also feel index futures are TOO FAST for me. The other futures contracts(GC, CL, NQ) moves fast too but not in the ways that NQ moves.
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My "best" instruments were the index futures, and before that, CL. I'm in a tough place at the moment in my thought processes, because of the chaos Trump has brought to the financial world.
This is why I'm in a wait-and-see mode on my micro NQ long. I kept thinking about a bottom on this latest dive, and went long at what I thought was a reasonable drop from the all-time high, on May 16th. 200 point drop...What could go wrong? But of course the thing dropped over 600 points from that entry by Monday afternoon.
I certainly did not expect a 400+ point rebound in just four trading days, so I let the swing work itself, rather than scale in (or should I say, average down). With the China uncertainty, I could not allow myself to attempt anything but hope for a positive roll on the expiration in two weeks. I have my target set for a 30 point gain with a GTC.
It is too bad CL and it's derivatives are following the growth cycle so closely now.
Been dabbling in the ZB now... ZS is starting to make some sense, but the GC chart is still printing surprises each day. Nothing seems to work logically anymore. But I chalk it up to my own foibles. This is what the lack of experience does to someone (Me) who has never been trading this stage of an economic cycle. I thought 5 years of watching this shit would give me better insights, but boy was I wrong. The market dynamics, when they change, seem to change extremely.
i agree a good living can be made trading the ES..but as you said one must be in total control with no silly things like wishing.. hoping and praying
also..being in the right place at the right time is of no use unless one has a sound strategy..which of course is the hard bit..takes a long time to be able to see the wood for the trees..no easy way.. unfortunately!
trader99..you are all over the place..I am not surprised you lost on NQ..even with the current HFT algos screwing up the charts the ES is still much better to trade than NQ..always has been..always will be
volatility is a two edged sword..it presents much more opportunities.. which mean much more to win..or lose..the end result will depend on how much experience one has with live trading.. available capital and time..and last but not least..a sound strategy that limits risk per trade but allows winning trades to be maximized
key is to start small..use the MES until consistently profitable every week..only then start trading the ES..again small with 1 contract to make sure the consistency is still there..greed and fear can wipe a trader out..much better to make $500 a day than to lose $5000..anytime
I plan to trade the MES for a while.. nothing else..no hurry with ES for now..a trade could last a few seconds or several hours..it all depends on what setup I am trading and what actually happens once my money is at risk!
also..being in the right place at the right time is of no use unless one has a sound strategy..which of course is the hard bit..takes a long time to be able to see the wood for the trees..no easy way.. unfortunately!
trader99..you are all over the place..I am not surprised you lost on NQ..even with the current HFT algos screwing up the charts the ES is still much better to trade than NQ..always has been..always will be
volatility is a two edged sword..it presents much more opportunities.. which mean much more to win..or lose..the end result will depend on how much experience one has with live trading.. available capital and time..and last but not least..a sound strategy that limits risk per trade but allows winning trades to be maximized
key is to start small..use the MES until consistently profitable every week..only then start trading the ES..again small with 1 contract to make sure the consistency is still there..greed and fear can wipe a trader out..much better to make $500 a day than to lose $5000..anytime
I plan to trade the MES for a while.. nothing else..no hurry with ES for now..a trade could last a few seconds or several hours..it all depends on what setup I am trading and what actually happens once my money is at risk!
Yes most important lesson i have learnt is you need to have some sort of definitive edge and a strategy to implement that edge using the best parameters for risk and reward in terms of trading the ES. The edge is the primary factor while all else such as risk management, sizing, precision entry/exits etc come secondary. Without the edge you might get lucky sometimes but will never be consistent.
MES i think is good way to start to test the strategy and find your aha moment, without paying a heavy price. I started with ES and i have paid my dues, to find the clues. More in terms of amount of time spent in front of the screen to try and understand the market.
If you have not been very successful in day trading ES or any other index futures, it could be because of not having an edge that is valid as of today, or not building a proper game plan based on and around that edge. Most of the edge traders have except for a handful of traders are not meant to be used through out the trading day, you just wait for your golden entry ( could be one or two times a day) that is based on your edge and then use a stop that takes you out if you were wrong and if not a profit target that lets you lock the profit without the trade going awry.
Lesson i learnt from the past would be my first order of business before i chuck more money into the trading pit, would be test the edge or edges and see how it works out, what times of the day it works out, how do i set best take profit targets without risking my stops being taken, also setting a stop parameter that agrees to me not losing my senses and getting into revenge trading. i would test it couple of days and try to see how i do on the emotional side once i got my edge figured out, MES is good place to start without losing your shirt.
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For me swing trading would require huge balls and capitals, as many a times news happens when market are closed and there is little you can do to counter that. Day trading i hardly hold trades longer then 5-10 minutes. Swing trading is like a hunter who sets up a trap and hopes that he will catch a prey, while day trading is like having a hunting rifle trained on the prey and you just calculating where and when best to take the clean shot so you kill the prey without having to track it for couple of miles and wasting energy and more ammo. ( ha ha the hunting metaphor is not the best description to illustrate trading but it is what it is, trading is survival of the best)
years ago there was a trader on a website..not sure if this one or another..and he was considered an "expert" as he had automated his trading..trading US stocks using IB TWS as far as I remember..a lot of people actually went to his house to see him trade and we're all praise on the website after
at the time I looked at what he was doing..from the posts that is..not visiting his house..and it was very simple strategy that worked with a diversified portfolio of stocks..I can't remember how the automation was linked to TWS..but it was very simple..buy or sell the breakouts..when momentum stops go flat..wait for consolidation..buy or sell the breakouts..and he "was" making good money
the simple things are always overlooked
at the time I looked at what he was doing..from the posts that is..not visiting his house..and it was very simple strategy that worked with a diversified portfolio of stocks..I can't remember how the automation was linked to TWS..but it was very simple..buy or sell the breakouts..when momentum stops go flat..wait for consolidation..buy or sell the breakouts..and he "was" making good money
the simple things are always overlooked