Let's say conservatively, I catch one of those big moves once a month. Perhaps I can recover faster than 1.5 years. And it could snowball..
That's the optimistic case.
But to hedge that, I will need to continue to focus on non-trading income stream.
First off, I like to say thank you to all the ETers who read my thread and provided words of encouragement. Because of that I chose the right path and now making tons of progress.
I wrote this in Aug 22, 2018. That seems like ages ago in terms of improvements in my trading, life attitude, and life situation! I'm grateful for these positive growth.
To recap the losses:
1) Robinhood:
I was down HUGE. Almost gave up hope. But my return in 2018 was 110.72%!!! Well, albeit this is from a smaller base. But even on a non-percentage basis it was a huge return dollarwise. It would have been even bigger had I swing traded more frequently instead of position trading. That is if I had sold at the local highs then got back in and sold out again. It's hindsight.
At point one, I thought this account had no hope of recovery. But it ended up being on of the best performing ones. Hopefully in 2019 I will recover all of my losses and go beyond that. I feel confident and optimistic given my edge now.
2) IB IRA:
2018 Return was -9.83%. At one point I was down over -16% in 2018. I'm still down from my euqity highs. I could have done much much better had it not for IB IRA margin restrictions. I have decent size amount of capital but for some reason IB IRA accounts margin requirements are several times HIGHER than taxable IB account. So I couldn't even trade YM, NQ, etc even though I have several times multiple margins. In 2019, this needs a lot of work to get back to even(my last high)
3) IB Taxable account:
This is total loss. Basically wiped out. It hurts. I kept trying to daytrade to make it back and kept losing more. It wasn't until I realize I'm better at swing trading. I swing traded my Robinhood account to 110% gain in 2018 from its lows. I will add more this account once I go positive on my Robinhood and IB IRA account.
4) Crypto accounts:
Positive baby! By far the best risk/reward. Low risk and high returns. There were several times I missed the bottom on ETH. Had I pulled the trigger I would have made back my entire losses in all of my accounts and more in a few trades! I keep kicking myself for not doing it. I even had it planned and had a price target too. But I got busy and missed the target. I should have just put a limit order and forget about it. My limit price was literally a dollar away from the bottom. This would have been my 10 bagger trade given the leverage I had in my crypto account(5x). But after deep reflections, I realized I was scared of maxing out on leverage to put on these whale trades. My mistake. I could have made very good money even on a non-leveraged trades. Don't need to go maximum 5x leverage even though with that maximum leverage trade I would literally wiped out all of my losses and made whopper 10 bagger in profits!
Again, thank you for all the ETers following this thread and your encouragements.
I'm very glad I picked the right path and went back to Corporate America. It provided me the financial stability I needed and the confidence to swing trade.
Happy New Year everyone! Happy trading in 2019!