Made $1.15 million in 18 months, lost $1 million in 12 months, will I ever be good at trading?

[Handle123]

Regardless whether he is who he is, this happens to many. Our ego's takes over like we actually know what we are doing and yet we have not proven we can do this over 3-5 years. So many do well first year then quit their jobs and loss everything. My first year when from 5k to 103k in several months, soybeans in bull market, broker knew less than I did, had most contracts at highs, then in three days limit down lost 108k. You mumble, throw things, suicidal, think you are worthless, but it comes down to this, you lost cause you were greedy and not smart. Take Wheat market, you can dig up charts of this market going back into 1890s, not saying you have to do that much trading, but you have to have at very least 3 years to know what is going on so it has proven to have a history, so before you can increases size, you have to decrease percentages of risk. You have to keep back testing further backwards to understand where the drawdowns going to come. And you can go back 30-50 years in many futures markets, better you know where the drawdown might come in, at certain equity highs, you cut back size. Every 500k, cut back risk 0.1%, let the account grow and put steady size but keep reducing risk till you get to 1% or lower.

Stop trading, go back to square one, we all know why we don't do well, has what you been trading entered chop? ES peaked May 2015, markets been having wide swings for a year, so is this why?

 

[magicz]

you sir are at the bottom of the sentiment cycle. I would say you are between panic and capitulation but fear not if you survive you'll climb the hill again.

many of us have been there and for many cycles. you can survive this, just adapt your trading to the environment.

 

[dealmaker]

I find myself wondering why I have spent the past 5 years trading futures and stocks. There are a thousand other careers that are both more fulfilling and more of a steady return on time spent.

About a year ago I turned $150k into $1.3 million trading futures on a variety of markets over an 18 month period. This gain was based on hundreds of transactions with a holding period averaging days-weeks. I held usually 5-10 positions at a time so it wasn't based on any one market that took off and gave me a free windfall. I had lots of losing trades along the way but they were always cut quickly.

When my account size was over $1.3mm I figured that I would make $2-3mm the following year continuing my progress, buy a Porsche, and buy my girlfriend a diamond ring. WRONG. I increased my size at exactly the wrong time and then watched as I couldn't buy a winning trade and over the following 12 months my account hemorrhaged money. This was based on hundreds of losing trades.

Now I sit here with my dwindled account and I feel like I can't trade my way out of a paper bag. I'm struggling to make $200 trading stocks on a good day and continue to watch my account stagnate or slowly erode.

Why I may have skill: made $1mm, never had a losing account even since day one trading at multiple brokers, winners are always much larger than losers, low win rate and still profitable, 5 years experience, know all the old advice for trading about cutting losses etc., have survived multiple drawdowns in the last 5 years (none this severe)

Why I suck: lost $1mm, have been in a 14 month drawdown, bad mental state, low confidence, can't figure out what I'm doing wrong

I feel like throwing in the towel but unfortunately this is the career I've spent 5 years of my life on. I feel like Van Wilder, still in school after 5 years and no closer to graduating. On the one hand so close to finally being consistently profitable and making money, and on the other hand being a loser who can't even do the thing he's spent five years of his life focused on.

I wonder if anyone else has felt this way before and how they handled it and if they made it to the other side. Thanks for reading. Appreciate any feedback.

Take time off and allow yourself to assimilate & analyze the events then you'll comeback wiser and better. I'd recommend at least 3-6 months. Best of luck.

 

[El OchoCinco]

You are good at trading, just shitty at risk management.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

You are good at trading, just shitty at risk management.

Which goes to show...a good R:R isn't necessarily good risk management!

 

[El OchoCinco]

Risk management is EVERYTHING, not just trades with a specific R:R... taking losses without adjusting position size or cutting yourself off when the account starts to take hits or reviewing your methodology is all risk management. Anyone who makes millions and then loses it all actually just proves they were lucky on the way up or their system worked in one specific set of conditions and when market changed they leveraged up and got blown out. Same ol story.

 

[BONECRUSHER]

Risk management is EVERYTHING, not just trades with a specific R:R... taking losses without adjusting position size or cutting yourself off when the account starts to take hits or reviewing your methodology is all risk management. Anyone who makes millions and then loses it all actually just proves they were lucky on the way up or their system worked in one specific set of conditions and when market changed they leveraged up and got blown out. Same ol story.

Exactly my point...too many people saying cut your losses and let your winners run is the only edge out there! Been saying for a long time that market change recognition is very important!

 

[lawrence-lugar]

Anybody that can turn 150K into 1.3 million in a year and a half can't be that dumb.
That's like saying Germany almost dominated all of Europe because it was lucky. -- just doesn't happen that way.

I think you know the answer by now on how to succeed.
Weird post/person.

What was your average % profit per trade, and holding period per trade?
Did you compound that?

 

[Jack1960]

Hello,
Have confidence in yourself. You can make money again. We all experience failures.

Turn this failure into a motivating force. Take 2 weeks off. Come back,analyze what you did wrong and trade very small.

May God bless you!

 

[NoBias]

First episode:

1. New poster from today
2. Made a killing for 18 months
3. Hundreds of trades
4. Losses cut quickly
5. Never had a losing account even since day one

Second episode:

1. 12 months
2. Hundreds of losing trades
3. Lost almost complete account
4. Struggling to make even $200
5. A 14 month drawdown (in 12 months?)

Am I the only one who has questions and is skeptical about this story?
Surf, is this you?

I see the last weeks a lot of new threads opened by new ET members. And many of these threads are about things that were already extensively discussed. It looks like a reanimation of ET.

No, you are not alone. I smell BS as well...

Traded for a minimum of 32 weeks before he stumbled upon and decided he should "Post" on ET.

Ya, right... Skeptical is an accurate description...

OP hasn't confirmed or denied he is actually Surf, if it isn't perhaps it is Q3D who recently vowed to leave ET after admitting his failure as a Trader. Timing fits.

No doubt in my mind OP is a failed trader the question is which one of ET's finest and his/her agenda...