Macro thread for pros.

[tsznecki]

Next week in the UK will be interesting obvs.

This is increasingly a binary situation. No deal or no brexit.

To the best of my knowledge, a customs union would have the hardliners in rage, they would rather see no deal. DUP is in favor but SNP is not. SNP has 3x the votes DUP has.

However a 2nd referendum doesn't mean no brexit explicitly. I find it hard to believe Brussels would say yes to kicking the can down the road another x years to potentially have the same result.

I'm inclined to believe a general election will look to the EU as the same as having a 2nd ref.

EU sounds conciliatory on customs union, Barnier's tone however suggests that the EU is looking at no deal being the primary result, and that is my stance. UK will not get something done that is satisfactory to the EU by Apr 12th.

I am short cable. I welcome comments.

 

[destriero]

Lifetime equity highs across all accounts today. Still have three days remaining on the bear diagonal and hedge.

$6.3MM net liq across personal. Cannot discuss work. Closing the remainder of my IRA on Monday and wiring out Tuesday. Wired out taxable today and working on the legal and infrastructure between now and a (hopeful) 7/1/2019 launch date. I'll still be trading at the FO, but I'll be gone most of June with the kiddos.

Any studs that want to login before it all goes into the CMA account better hurry the fvck up.

I can't talk about work related trades so I'll probably be going dark on here.

 

[destriero]

I'll keep up with this thread and field questions and post general macro.

 

[destriero]

Month to date IRA. Surprise mother fvckers! Enjoy.

 

[Han2019]

I am not a pro, just a noob and I am definitely keen to see what the pros here think about the GBP. My thinking is that now that the "can" is kicked further down the road till Halloween, there is a slight breather for businesses, but I don't think the worse is over, a lots of damages have already been done to the UK economy, we are in the same scenario as before the EU summit where there still lots of uncertainties for business and any further extensions might not be as easy to come as the last 2.

I think that no deal should be very much off the table especially now that all preparations are called off, and on second referendum, I do agree with May that this is not necessarily a good thing for the UK and the timeline is just too tight, so this too is unlikely. Revoking A50 also doesn't seem to be a likely scenario. So the most likely scenario I think is that after another few weeks of bickering, May and Corbyn will finally finish their talks and reach some sort of crossed parties compromise, even if it comes with the costs of backlashes from their respective parties.

Thinking that after the Easter recess, the pressure from the Tories for a new PM, the initial harder stances that Labour will take in the negotiations will push the GBP below the 1,3000 level, 1,278 looks possible to me. Then GBP should rally up as we get close to the 1st June and the cross parties talks are complete.

I would appreciate the criticisms from the pros here and perhaps sharing their views too!