macro thoughts

What is globalization? Just a cliched catch-all word that don't mean diddly squat. Its a bastardization around which the good, the bad and the ugly can marshall disparate and unconnected thoughts and prejudices.

Why not say international trade and investment? People - 'the thinkeratti' - like a big glib word to be bandied about by nations so they can construct some irrational conspiracy, some irrational explanation at heart of world problems, some cause of everything they see about them.

And there are others. Global warming. Laughably 30 odd years ago it was global cooling - a new ice age!

Whats really happening is that each life - that is your life that you experience which you try to put at the heart of the universe and all understanding - is less than half an eye blink in the evolution of humankind. Its a process, pal. Its not 'why'; its 'It is'.
 
Yeah, Mvic, lets run out in the sunshine and go skipping through the meadow .. hang on a minute, I only do that .. together hand in hand with a hot chick ... !

Better that you stay back and indulge yourself heaving and humping around that grand whimsy 'globalization' or whatever comes along to replace it as the next 'grand explanation of everything'.
 
Macro thoughts are good so long as they ultimately contribute to your P&L, which can definitely be the case when they are focused on anticipating shifts in capital flows. But I'm hard pressed to see the point in debating the political merits of "globalisation". Another thing I don't see the point of is focusing on too long-term a time horizon. America was the dominant economic growth story from 1900-1970, but that was utterly irrelevant if you were deciding whether to go long or short US stocks in the latter half of 1929. Like it or not, trading is predominantly about timing, not long-term investment.
 
Quote from Mvic:

in a society that does not have a major foreign source of capital the diverse interests within the society compete amongst each other for the limited domestic pot. It is in the interest of all participants that some level of domestic transparency be present and that widespread corruption at high levels be kept to a minimum. When the main spigot to the national economy comes from a foreign source then whoever can control that source will benefit disproportionately from that control and it will be in the interest of the various domestic factions to tow the line lest they get left out of the party. This high level corruption (which ironically actually reduces lower level corruption, as opm post seems to point out) does not promote the emergence of a middle class nor democracy as it relies on the lack of transparency that a democratically engaged middle class would obviously demand. Often this spigot of foreign capital has come in the form of loans and when the investment does not yield fruit in terms of an increase in GDP growth the result is a huge debt burden, high interest rates, eventual default and run away inflation.
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Interesting points Mvic- however doesn't it seem the argument points a finger at corruption itself rather than suggest that foreign capital is a corrupting influence? A man who indulges in immoral acts at the first opportunity had a problem before the opportunity came along. I definitely agree that transparency and rule of law are necessary requirements for trade to work, but on a higher level they are necessary for economies to work period, be they open or closed...

interesting points from opm on Poland as well- last time I was there (1997) the mood was very hopeful and they were just getting ready to slash a few zeroes off the zloty... in terms of the booms and busts, I wonder how much of that is just the throes of growth... even the good old US of A has problems with boom and bust, shareholders neglecting their responsibilities, opportunistic parties milking the system etc... I agree that there needs to be some level of third party involvement in the system- the need for fair rules and enforcement of those rules seems almost a given before trade can be expected to work... philosophical difference is that I would very much lean towards not enough interference being better than too much...better to let the baby get banged and bruised but grow up than strangle it in its crib... capitalism cannot be blindly trusted but at least the parties of capitalism have a real and direct incentive in ongoing solutions whereas the same cannot always be said for government entities and NGO's who either don't have a direct stake in the success of commerce or worse yet have a stake in stifling or subverting it...
 
Quote from Cutten:

Macro thoughts are good so long as they ultimately contribute to your P&L, which can definitely be the case when they are focused on anticipating shifts in capital flows. But I'm hard pressed to see the point in debating the political merits of "globalisation". Another thing I don't see the point of is focusing on too long-term a time horizon. America was the dominant economic growth story from 1900-1970, but that was utterly irrelevant if you were deciding whether to go long or short US stocks in the latter half of 1929. Like it or not, trading is predominantly about timing, not long-term investment.
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true... my intention in starting this thread had bottom line P&L in mind... definitely agree that it's more important to have a bead on what's happening than to discourse on the moral merits of it... also agree/add that a downfall of technical analysis is that it has little to say on the subject of broad market selection, and if US markets are heading for the doldrums, which I think they may be, it could be wise for even the shortest of short term traders to follow the action and broaden their horizons

 
How about speculation on where the shift in investment leadership will be?

Marc Faber talks about this quite a bit, eg commodities 1970-80, US Govt Bonds 1980-1985(?), Japanese equities 1985-89, Nasdaq 1990-2000

His point is that an astute investor could have done very well just by making 4 decisions over the past 3 decades at each change in leadership after a burst bubble. Of course everything is easy in hindsight :)

What's next?

Asian equities?

Commodities again? (the industrialisation of China and possibly India are good themes, but it would be nice for commodities if we also had world inflation)

South America?

Russia?

Oil? (Boone Pickens seems to think that world oil production has seen it's heyday, whereas consumption seems to keep growing. It would take a much higher price of oil before other oil pockets are accessed, eg shale in Alaska, other inhospitable places)

Chinese equities?

Chinese real estate?

The Euro (sharing the dollar's role as a global currency?)

Gold?

The S&P 500?

European equities?


Any guesses?
 
When a civilization has excess sexual acceptance, it goes down. There's a saying in China which would translate to something like, "Drowning in Alcohol Land, Lost in Sex Forest" When the country goes under excess alcohol and sex, it usually goes down.

Sodom and Gomora... etc. etc. etc.

It's starting to resemble the US doesn't it?

Isn't it cool to be drunk and get high on weed.

Isn't it cool to be a slut and a pimp.

Isn't it accepted and in a sense respected to be or doing it.

Let's see how this goes.... :)
 
Quote from TheStudent:

How about speculation on where the shift in investment leadership will be?
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Before we get to the next big thing, we've got some ugly issues to work through.

How will the housing bubble resolve itself (slow bleed or massive bust), and what's going to happen to the twin titans (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac)? When will we (the USA) really start feeling the effects of foreign direct investment drying up and eventually reversing itself? How ugly will it get when we start pressuring Asia to strengthen their artificially cheap currencies? How and when will Asia start divesting itself of US debt? How much sway will Pat Buchanan and the populist pitchfork crowd have over trade and politics? What will happen to Europe when the EU stability pact is exposed as a joke with the two biggest members (France and Germany) ignoring the rules? How far will central banks go to keep gold down if the dollar heads into a panic freefall scenario? What if Arnold becomes the victim of a double recall and Joe Millionaire is the new governor of California?

The past few years have been some of the strangest on record, with little help from the history books, and things are only going to get stranger imho. Maybe the world is going through puberty.

Rather than try to identify a single major trend, I think it makes more sense to handicap a stable of favorites and then watch things unfold. When you see one break away from the pack, there you go.
 
How will the housing bubble resolve itself (slow bleed or massive bust)

I think slow bleed because real estate has historically been a 'smart' investment. Since, you are asking about residential real estate.
 
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