Machine learning services

Quanto said:
What is your own impression of RL for trading?

It alreadyy happens, but I doubt it will be useful for Average Joe, unless he is willing to pay and risk much...
Trading will be done by bots, and offered as a service to the masses, but on average the averages won't change, IMO... :)
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Very very promising. Hopefully even amazing if done everything properly.
 
Meh. Deep learning is very good at performing cognitive tasks that humans excel at, like recognizing cats in pictures. While there are similar pattern-recognition tasks in the markets (mostly in the HFT space), most of the longer term forecasting is based on tabular data and deterministic models are better suited for it. Also, feedback loops and salting are a real thing in finance, which makes RL tasks difficult
 
Slow Learning Elf said:
Meh. Deep learning is very good at performing cognitive tasks that humans excel at, like recognizing cats in pictures. While there are similar pattern-recognition tasks in the markets (mostly in the HFT space), most of the longer term forecasting is based on tabular data and deterministic models are better suited for it. Also, feedback loops and salting are a real thing in finance, which makes RL tasks difficult
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Not really. A DL model is capable of doing much more than you wrote. What I mean is that a model can do more than just make predictions; it can actually manage your trading, handling all its aspects.
 
like building a house the foundation is the most important - translated to trading terms that would be "data" if you don't master the data you have garbage.

always the first failure point.
 
All the AI and computer learning in the world won't replace common sense.

Search "VZ's lemonade stand" definitive analysis of how stocks work beyond the myopic quarter to quarter approach geared for idiots and pumped by popular websites and many of the folks on CNBC. You can either lose money, or invest in what's real for gradual long term wealth building. Water always seeks its level over time... that, and algos will always beat 90% of retail traders near term. Write that down.
~vz
 
vanzandt said:
All the AI and computer learning in the world won't replace common sense.

Search "VZ's lemonade stand" definitive analysis of how stocks work beyond the myopic quarter to quarter approach geared for idiots and pumped by popular websites and many of the folks on CNBC. You can either lose money, or invest in what's real for gradual long term wealth building. Water always seeks its level over time... that, and algos will always beat 90% of retail traders near term. Write that down.
~vz
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I agree with your first sentence regarding common sense, and the water analogy.
But I give a shaet to such statistics comparing retail to others like professionals and algos. These stats can't be true, there is an agenda/intent behind spreading such IMO false stats, simply b/c it's very unnatural since it violates the Normal Distribution... :)
Maybe someone wanted his group to stand out over others...
 
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vanzandt said:
All the AI and computer learning in the world won't replace common sense.

Search "VZ's lemonade stand" definitive analysis of how stocks work beyond the myopic quarter to quarter approach geared for idiots and pumped by popular websites and many of the folks on CNBC. You can either lose money, or invest in what's real for gradual long term wealth building. Water always seeks its level over time... that, and algos will always beat 90% of retail traders near term. Write that down.
~vz
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About water always seeking its level, Soros would disagree (Reflexivity).
 
Quanto said:
I agree with your first sentence regarding common sense, and the water analogy.
But I give a shaet to such statistics comparing retail to others like professionals and algos. These stats can't be true, there is an agenda/intent behind spreading such IMO false stats, simply b/c it's very unnatural since it violates the Normal Distribution... :)
Maybe someone wanted his group to stand out over others...
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Well, when I say "90% of retail traders", obviously thats just a blanket statement used for convenience, but you get the idea. Trading day to day is very tough, to win consistently takes time to learn. But it can be done. The #1 biggest thing... is always using small positions no matter how convinced you are you're right about a stocks move. That's easier said than done. That's why so many newbies zero out their accounts.
 
vanzandt said:
The #1 biggest thing... is always using small positions no matter how convinced you are you're right about a stocks move.
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Of course I agree. And it's not hard to do so in practice:
by doing many smaller trades one can even get much more fun... :)
 
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