Machine designed strategies. Do they work?

Quote from alexandermerwe:

Anyway, this is interesting discussion. Here is another system PAL posted for QQQ. The equity curve for the out-of-sample is a bit volatile but that may have to do with the followed position sizing rule, which basically equates risk percent with the stop-loss percent value according to my calculations.

Thanks I will try the demo. This software is expensive but I will do it just out of curiocity. I think price patetrns may have some potential. I know indicators do not have any chance for real performance.
 
Quote from goodgoing:

milewski05 probably won't come back here. His visit was very quick and had specific purpose. A trader who can afford to spend USD 60,000 to buy software without testing it before is too large to fit in this place. :)
Indeed. Registered March 2012, 12 posts and all posted in this thread. :D
 
How true is that. The product touted here is snake oil. Complete overfitting and I repeat myself in saying that such "optimizations" can be had free of charge in R and similar statistical packages. Heck, even Python offers many free libraries that provide access to any optimization routine you could ever ask for (stuff that goes most likely way beyond the sophistication level of this pitiful software pushed here.

Amateurs stay far away I can only say.

Quote from Rationalize:

Time is finite.

Allocating time to the most productive endeavour is rational.

If you're failing as a trader, then sure, go sell software..

Ask an entrepreneur about how they allocate their time.
 
you are wrong: Those algorithms curve fit the heck out of any given time series, NOTHING MORE. There is not a single hedge fund under the sun that would every consider using such amateurish software.

Quote from braincell:

I think the reasoning behind selling these machine learning kits is that they are able to create a very wide array of results, since they originate from a random and narrow down to something meaningful with the search process. This means that even if the seller of the software is using it for trading, it would take a very long time for his buyers to hit upon the same exacty combinations that are making him money.
 
Lol, you turn the poster's words in his own mouth. He claimed SUCCESSFUL traders WONT SELL SOFTWARE, I bet there are many software vendors that sell trading applications who never traded before. Focus and getting the point straight I consider a basic requirement for success, including programming and marketing software...enough said.


Quote from alexandermerwe:

I would agree that some failed traders sell software but logic dictates that not all software is sold by failed traders. As I said, if the rate of growth of profits due to software sales exceeds the rate of growth of profits due to trading because of risk aversion and capitalization constraints then the decision to sell software is rational. Besides, no such software is likely togenerate a complete system for you and no system will impose on you prudent risk management and as a result, most customers of those software will blow up and blame the developers rather than themselves.

Anyway, this is interesting discussion. Here is another system PAL posted for QQQ. The equity curve for the out-of-sample is a bit volatile but that may have to do with the followed position sizing rule, which basically equates risk percent with the stop-loss percent value according to my calculations.
 
Quote from amazingIndustry:

Lol, you turn the poster's words in his own mouth. He claimed SUCCESSFUL traders WONT SELL SOFTWARE, I bet there are many software vendors that sell trading applications who never traded before. Focus and getting the point straight I consider a basic requirement for success, including programming and marketing software...enough said.

You sound excessively dogmatic. The highest principle in life is not to generalize if you want to succeed. Bloomberg was a successful trader in ML but he created one of the best trading software and became very rich. Actually that was the first vendor to provide analytics online for traders of bonds and options. Why do you think he gave up his analytics edge and created software? Is there maybe something you do not understand? Do you know young dogmatic man that the first Bloomberg terminal which I used to trade Eurodollars ran on FORTRAN 77? Not R, not C++, not anything of the sort you cocking around?
Imagine if Bloomberg thought like you do.
 
Quote from amazingIndustry:

you are wrong:

I'm glad someone has finally told me, and with such good arguments, after me posting dozens of posts explaining my opinions and findings. Thanks for that! ; )
 
Quote from Rationalize:

My contention is that no software is sold by successful traders.

I think selling tools (not trading algorithms) makes some sense if your trading profits are in the low 6 figures. It lets one diversify higher risk trading with a low risk income stream. But I guess if your trading brings in upper 6 figures or 7 figures, then it probably would not make sense to waste time writing, marketing, and selling software.
 
*** Bloomberg NEVER worked at ML, he worked at Salomon Brothers which was later acquired by Citi
*** Bloomberg NEVER was the the first vendor to provide pricing and market analytics. Reuters was earlier among several others that were later on taken over by the likes of Thompson Reuters & Co
*** I spelled out FACTS, nothing more, nothing less, not sure what "cocking around" you refer to. YOU AT LEAST GOT YOUR FACTS PLAIN WRONG
*** a snake oil salesmen is someone selling an expensive piece of arse without trial, without any groups of users who have extensively used it, other than 1-12 post self-created users that are perused for testimonial purposes. This is what this thread is mostly about unfortunately.



Quote from alexandermerwe:

You sound excessively dogmatic. The highest principle in life is not to generalize if you want to succeed. Bloomberg was a successful trader in ML but he created one of the best trading software and became very rich. Actually that was the first vendor to provide analytics online for traders of bonds and options. Why do you think he gave up his analytics edge and created software? Is there maybe something you do not understand? Do you know young dogmatic man that the first Bloomberg terminal which I used to trade Eurodollars ran on FORTRAN 77? Not R, not C++, not anything of the sort you cocking around?
Imagine if Bloomberg thought like you do.
 
lol, which findings? That you ended up with an overfitted model? Hmm, did I not exactly tell you that this is what this software is all about? And you are one of the poor souls willing to shell out 60 grand for that? You must be stupid or in the same bed with the snake oil salesman.

Quote from braincell:

I'm glad someone has finally told me, and with such good arguments, after me posting dozens of posts explaining my opinions and findings. Thanks for that! ; )
 
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