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Machine designed strategies. Do they work?
- Thread starter v75z52
- Start date
Quote from tim888:
Consecutive losers (max). PF is profit factor, etc.
Okay thanks. Just looking at the window you attached, it looks like out of the 12 visible signals in the window, may be 5 of them look somewhat real (around 10 or greater trades, with around 65-70% success rate or better), 4 of them had success rate <= 50% (i.e., didn't work), 2 of them with decent win rate but small sample size (1 and 6 trades), and 1 of them with a 60% rate (6/10 worked -- which is iffy).
Quote from milewski05:
if you have questions im here to answer them im not going to argue with you, i know it works cause of the amount of taxes i just paid on trading profits in 2011
But I didn't ask you how much you paid for taxes so your answer here was irrelevant and a distracting issue. My point was that if the value added comes from the work of the user then the high price is not justified in this particular case of a trading system development platform.
Also with NinjaTrader you have to put a lot of work to develop a system but it is free. They or even Amibroker may be adding genetic programming, something that will bring the value of the software you bought down to little.
Again, this is common sense and not a distracting issue like the amount of taxes you paid. If there is software that can do the job without any human intervention, then it is probably worth around 50K. But then why selling it? With a 20K capital you can compound your way to the sky.
Please stay on the subject. Nobody here cares how much you pay for taxes or what you have for dinner last night.
Quote from alexandermerwe:
If there is software that can do the job without any human intervention, then it is probably worth around 50K. But then why selling it? With a 20K capital you can compound your way to the sky.
There will never be software that can do the job without any human intervention. If you can design and test a strategy in one hour compared to 30 days of manual work, i think it may be worth it. How much exactly depends on how much you value your time and what returns on capital you want. TSL is priced high not so much because of the value but because they don't want to sell too many of them, imho. I think we should be duscussing concepts behind products, and not products themselves.
Quote from ssrrkk:
Okay thanks. Just looking at the window you attached, it looks like out of the 12 visible signals in the window, may be 5 of them look somewhat real (around 10 or greater trades, with around 65-70% success rate or better), 4 of them had success rate <= 50% (i.e., didn't work), 2 of them with decent win rate but small sample size (1 and 6 trades), and 1 of them with a 60% rate (6/10 worked -- which is iffy).
In other words, to further clarify, out of the 12, there were 10 with okay sample size (still small but may be okay). Out of the 10, 5 worked, 4 failed, and 1 was borderline. If the borderline is conservatively assigned to the failed side, then 5 worked, and 5 failed. The 5 ones that worked will give you profits. The 5 that failed will give you losses. Will the profits balance out the losses? Also given the spread+commission skew, 50/50 will not cut it for sure. So that window shows to me that you don't have an overall profitable system yet.
Quote from ssrrkk:
In other words, to further clarify, out of the 12, there were 10 with okay sample size (still small but may be okay). Out of the 10, 5 worked, 4 failed, and 1 was borderline. If the borderline is conservatively assigned to the failed side, then 5 worked, and 5 failed. The 5 ones that worked will give you profits. The 5 that failed will give you losses. Will the profits balance out the losses? Also given the spread+commission skew, 50/50 will not cut it for sure. So that window shows to me that you don't have an overall profitable system yet.
I think you are looking at this from the wrong angle. The OOS performance depends on how many patterns got a better and how worse got the ones that are losing money in relation. The profit factor of all patterns is about 3.2 in the OOS. Commission and slippage plays little role here as this is position trading. I like the system and I plan to trade it. I have found similar systems in other ETF products, stocks and futures. Some have higher profit factors. Thanks for your comments anyway.
lol talking about off topic. i went off topic for 161 characters u went off topic for 904 char.. thats like 500% more off topic then me... touche.
Quote from alexandermerwe:
But I didn't ask you how much you paid for taxes so your answer here was irrelevant and a distracting issue. My point was that if the value added comes from the work of the user then the high price is not justified in this particular case of a trading system development platform.
Also with NinjaTrader you have to put a lot of work to develop a system but it is free. They or even Amibroker may be adding genetic programming, something that will bring the value of the software you bought down to little.
Again, this is common sense and not a distracting issue like the amount of taxes you paid. If there is software that can do the job without any human intervention, then it is probably worth around 50K. But then why selling it? With a 20K capital you can compound your way to the sky.
Please stay on the subject. Nobody here cares how much you pay for taxes or what you have for dinner last night.