Thx much AMT. Thx also NewZealand
Macd
- Thread starter wanderer
- Start date
NZ,
Great observation! That was just a chart I put up to include in a PM that I had sent to someone earlier (someone had a question about my STOCH set-up that I use....so I made a chart image and sent it to them). Yes you could have skipped those two trades based upon the conflicting signals.....BUT in my case I took both trades as I was way up for the day, and that I only include the STOCH as a small part of my trade entry decision. The SHORT trade I took as I felt this baby was ready to roll over (the volume looked as if the buying side was losing interest). The SHORT trade went no where as buy side volume came back in a bit between 12:10 to 12:15 CST....right at 12:15 I decided to reverse with a 3 tick loss from my SHORT trade thinking we may get one last push for new highs (or at least a re-test of the days high). This LONG trade only hit my +1.0 point target (my +1.50 point target was never filled as price traded right to this level but did not get to my place in line). Soon thereafter I was reversing my position AGAIN (LOL!) at breakeven when sell volume poured back in with the "zero" line being challenged to the downside....this trade worked out very nice.
So yes the STOCH did not "agree" with these two trades you mentioned, but I was able to come out about even for taking a shot both times............in the end your observations are correct, and you would not have missed anything special by avoiding these two trades I took based off your STOCH reading.
Great observation! That was just a chart I put up to include in a PM that I had sent to someone earlier (someone had a question about my STOCH set-up that I use....so I made a chart image and sent it to them). Yes you could have skipped those two trades based upon the conflicting signals.....BUT in my case I took both trades as I was way up for the day, and that I only include the STOCH as a small part of my trade entry decision. The SHORT trade I took as I felt this baby was ready to roll over (the volume looked as if the buying side was losing interest). The SHORT trade went no where as buy side volume came back in a bit between 12:10 to 12:15 CST....right at 12:15 I decided to reverse with a 3 tick loss from my SHORT trade thinking we may get one last push for new highs (or at least a re-test of the days high). This LONG trade only hit my +1.0 point target (my +1.50 point target was never filled as price traded right to this level but did not get to my place in line). Soon thereafter I was reversing my position AGAIN (LOL!) at breakeven when sell volume poured back in with the "zero" line being challenged to the downside....this trade worked out very nice.
So yes the STOCH did not "agree" with these two trades you mentioned, but I was able to come out about even for taking a shot both times............in the end your observations are correct, and you would not have missed anything special by avoiding these two trades I took based off your STOCH reading.
AMT,
Thanks for keeping up with the great charts.
I had a question regarding losses as the winners take care of themselves.
I was wondering when the biggest losses occur for this type of trading. It seems to be when you take a 1/2 macd entry and then the macd gets back to the 1/2 macd value for a trend resume.
2 that occured so far:
1. 1/2 macd value .45, long at 13.1 on the 10:50 bar with an exit at 11.1 at 10:05.
2. 1/2 macd value .55, short at 9.0 on the 1:35 bar with an exit at 10.2 at 1:55 bar.
Are these trades part of the drawdown of the system or am I looking at this incorrectly. The first trade exit would have made a great re-entry short into the trend. The second trade exit would also have put me back into the long trend.
Too bad I didnt take the trend resume entries. It would have made up for both losses. It seems like you have to take these trend re-entries as they make up for the losses you took for the 1/2 macd entry failure.
I will look at past charts to see how often we get a 1/2 macd entry failure followed by a 1/2 macd trend re-entry failure. This would seem to yield the biggest losses. Two +1 pt losses in a row. If this is the biggest drawdown, then its not that bad.
Thanks
Thanks for keeping up with the great charts.
I had a question regarding losses as the winners take care of themselves.
I was wondering when the biggest losses occur for this type of trading. It seems to be when you take a 1/2 macd entry and then the macd gets back to the 1/2 macd value for a trend resume.
2 that occured so far:
1. 1/2 macd value .45, long at 13.1 on the 10:50 bar with an exit at 11.1 at 10:05.
2. 1/2 macd value .55, short at 9.0 on the 1:35 bar with an exit at 10.2 at 1:55 bar.
Are these trades part of the drawdown of the system or am I looking at this incorrectly. The first trade exit would have made a great re-entry short into the trend. The second trade exit would also have put me back into the long trend.
Too bad I didnt take the trend resume entries. It would have made up for both losses. It seems like you have to take these trend re-entries as they make up for the losses you took for the 1/2 macd entry failure.
I will look at past charts to see how often we get a 1/2 macd entry failure followed by a 1/2 macd trend re-entry failure. This would seem to yield the biggest losses. Two +1 pt losses in a row. If this is the biggest drawdown, then its not that bad.
Thanks
hi bprop ,
have a look at conversation between eminitrader and amt pevious page (21,22), faliures of half macd entries are exactly what u said, great re-entry points just as zero line rejects are(same concept)..u would just reverse initial position if macd turns back to resume trend.
nz
have a look at conversation between eminitrader and amt pevious page (21,22), faliures of half macd entries are exactly what u said, great re-entry points just as zero line rejects are(same concept)..u would just reverse initial position if macd turns back to resume trend.
nz
Great. I appreciate the heads up and have read those pages multiple times. While this system usually gives winning trades, I was just kind of hoping to spark some conversation about the worst case scenarios(so we can handle them if they come up).
Thanks again and I hope you took those trend resume trades
I would like to see how it works on trending days. Also AMT I would like to know how long your time frame is on the chart. Just the previous days or is it cut off and a certain time. Thx again and thxs for the PM.
Todd
Todd
Here is todays trades explained for more clarification....
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31711&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
Trade #1 - This was a pre-market LONG from 1213.00 (07:30-07:35 CST) as the MACD lifted off the "zero" line (the MACD had just recently crossed through the "zero" line but with flat volume) with some buy volume coming into the market.....I entered as we hit the highs of some very recent candles. This trade hit both primary targets and my best scale out from the trailed portion was +3.00 points (I cover 50% of my position at +1.00 pt, then 25% of my position at +1.50 pts, and then the remaining 25% is scaled out small blocks at a time as price action continues to move in my direction).
Trade #2 - I reversed my remainders entering a SHORT trade (and initiated a new full 100% position) at 1214.75 (09:20-09:25) as the MACD hit a "1/2 Value" line entry from a just formed peak. Volume was doing what I call a "flux change" just prior to my entry so I entered fairly soon after I watched this (this is how watching the T&S screen can really help your trading....you can "feel/see" volume shifts at times). This SHORT hit both targets and my best scale out for this trade was at +3.00 pts.
Trade #3 - This trade was a "1/2 Value" line break entry LONG from 1213.00 (09:50-09:55) that was entered with a good pulse of buying volume. This trade lost -1.00 pt as price action dropped with a fall-off in buying volume.
Trade#4 - This was a quick reversal SHORT entry as we had a re-break of the "1/2 Value" line with strong pulses of selling volume taking over. My SHORT reversal was entered at 1212.00 (10:00-10:05) with both targets hit and my best scale out level for this trade was at +5.50 pts. This is where being vigilant and ready to reverse is very critical to catch some of these intra-day micro moves.....watching volume really helps with this.
My next trades.....
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31712&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
Trade#5 - I entered this LONG as a standard "1/2 Value" line break at 1207.00 (11:40-11:45). Sell side volume had dissipated and the buy side was starting to build leading up to this entry. This trade hit both targets and my best scale out was for +4.00 pts.
Trade#6 - This was a reversal SHORT for my remainders (and initiated a new 100% position) at 1209.00 (12:35-12:40) due to a "1/2 Value" line break. At the trade entry time, volume was flat with no real bias....this was until about 12:50 when some buying came in and reversed the price action......this trade ended up with a -1.00 pt loss.
Trade#7 - I initiated this LONG trade as a reversal of my just previous SHORT at 1210.00 (12:55-13:00). We had a re-break of the "1/2 Value" line upwards by the MACD as buy volume was building up. This LONG trade hit both primary targets and then my best scale out level was for +3.00 pts.
Trade#8 - OK....my last trade for the day a SHORT reversal (a new 100% position was initiated) was based off another 1/2 Value" line break with an entry at 1211.50 (13:40-13:45). This trade I sat in for a while through the sideways action until we finally hit a bit of a drop right at the end of the day.....this trade hit both targets with all the remainders covering at the same +1.50 pt level because the trade day was just ending.
Nwbprop - Yes, the reversals at either the "zero" line or a "1/2 Value" line can be tricky if you do not react to the changes in volume/price action....this is just something you have to learn in time through actual trading and focus. You have to always be thinking, "what price level/volume/or indicator change would I need to see to reverse my position". This is very important to be ahead of the power curve otherwise much of your trading activities become "delayed and mentally unprepared" reactions to quick changes in price/volume. Know ahead of time your "line in the sand" price points, which with other forms of evidence would have you reverse your position. Yes today had some quick turns here and there (what else is new....LOL!!!), but again the day had some decent moves to bank points from.
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31711&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
Trade #1 - This was a pre-market LONG from 1213.00 (07:30-07:35 CST) as the MACD lifted off the "zero" line (the MACD had just recently crossed through the "zero" line but with flat volume) with some buy volume coming into the market.....I entered as we hit the highs of some very recent candles. This trade hit both primary targets and my best scale out from the trailed portion was +3.00 points (I cover 50% of my position at +1.00 pt, then 25% of my position at +1.50 pts, and then the remaining 25% is scaled out small blocks at a time as price action continues to move in my direction).
Trade #2 - I reversed my remainders entering a SHORT trade (and initiated a new full 100% position) at 1214.75 (09:20-09:25) as the MACD hit a "1/2 Value" line entry from a just formed peak. Volume was doing what I call a "flux change" just prior to my entry so I entered fairly soon after I watched this (this is how watching the T&S screen can really help your trading....you can "feel/see" volume shifts at times). This SHORT hit both targets and my best scale out for this trade was at +3.00 pts.
Trade #3 - This trade was a "1/2 Value" line break entry LONG from 1213.00 (09:50-09:55) that was entered with a good pulse of buying volume. This trade lost -1.00 pt as price action dropped with a fall-off in buying volume.
Trade#4 - This was a quick reversal SHORT entry as we had a re-break of the "1/2 Value" line with strong pulses of selling volume taking over. My SHORT reversal was entered at 1212.00 (10:00-10:05) with both targets hit and my best scale out level for this trade was at +5.50 pts. This is where being vigilant and ready to reverse is very critical to catch some of these intra-day micro moves.....watching volume really helps with this.
My next trades.....
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31712&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
Trade#5 - I entered this LONG as a standard "1/2 Value" line break at 1207.00 (11:40-11:45). Sell side volume had dissipated and the buy side was starting to build leading up to this entry. This trade hit both targets and my best scale out was for +4.00 pts.
Trade#6 - This was a reversal SHORT for my remainders (and initiated a new 100% position) at 1209.00 (12:35-12:40) due to a "1/2 Value" line break. At the trade entry time, volume was flat with no real bias....this was until about 12:50 when some buying came in and reversed the price action......this trade ended up with a -1.00 pt loss.
Trade#7 - I initiated this LONG trade as a reversal of my just previous SHORT at 1210.00 (12:55-13:00). We had a re-break of the "1/2 Value" line upwards by the MACD as buy volume was building up. This LONG trade hit both primary targets and then my best scale out level was for +3.00 pts.
Trade#8 - OK....my last trade for the day a SHORT reversal (a new 100% position was initiated) was based off another 1/2 Value" line break with an entry at 1211.50 (13:40-13:45). This trade I sat in for a while through the sideways action until we finally hit a bit of a drop right at the end of the day.....this trade hit both targets with all the remainders covering at the same +1.50 pt level because the trade day was just ending.
Nwbprop - Yes, the reversals at either the "zero" line or a "1/2 Value" line can be tricky if you do not react to the changes in volume/price action....this is just something you have to learn in time through actual trading and focus. You have to always be thinking, "what price level/volume/or indicator change would I need to see to reverse my position". This is very important to be ahead of the power curve otherwise much of your trading activities become "delayed and mentally unprepared" reactions to quick changes in price/volume. Know ahead of time your "line in the sand" price points, which with other forms of evidence would have you reverse your position. Yes today had some quick turns here and there (what else is new....LOL!!!), but again the day had some decent moves to bank points from.
I have had two very nice "zero" line reject trades today as the price action (both times supported by a shift in volume flow.....important!) reversed right as the MACD was at the "zero" line (I told you the "zero" line is a significant area.....always be vigilant of this). I waited both times to enter my trades as price action met the very near term "micro" S/R level created by the just previous candlestick(s) (the highs or the lows of the candle(s) just prior to the entry candle).
Here is the two "zero" line reject trades from today so far..............
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31722&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31723&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
Here is the two "zero" line reject trades from today so far..............
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31722&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
http://www.ttrader.com/mycharts/display.php?p=31723&u=cktrades&a=CK Trades&id=1303
AMT sweet trade. Nice job. I love the descriptions of your trades. It helps very much. Your volume indicator, is it only available via tradestation?
tia
tia