MACD/Trendline Swing Trader

Trend Fader...

I will call this the Holy Grail... Yes it does exist and is nothing new.. Trading is paradoxically VERY simple while a noisy mind complicates it.

Break scan..

UAUA attached.. Each congestion area is shorted on break with a trigger that is raised daily until it is taken... I took the trade in CAL on the $38 break but got shaken out (1 day) and stupidly did not re-take the trade as the descent accelerated.. Got the one at 21 also.. it dropped so fast denying me the opportunity to screw up the trade as much.. The the 2 last ones occurred while I snoozed so missed those.. A rough fundamental idea of what the sectors faces "should" help to see the trade through. The Bar MUST be red (Last < open) AND below 7 day sma.

For longer term this works even better on Weekly wegdes... XHB as well as Dow broke these last week. The LEH trade is simply a smaller pattern of the same, though flat.

For Longs simply reverse..

The work of the trader is A. Find the trades and patiently wait as the build occurs, Then once in the trade AGAIN patiently allow your account to grow.

Reverse Scan..

For stocks that don't persist like listed stocks tend to the idea is to buy a white bar after 2 or more red ones. The bar must be at least half full and %gain less than 8% or so for the day.. The low of the day should be close to a support area OR a trendline (current VLO Short - perfect but DRYS and TBSI Longs violate white bar rule though.) in favor of the trade. The smaller the bar the better... For shorts simply reverse...

This scan has caused me some trouble as it is harder to enter via triggers and requires my legendary manual input..<g>
 

Attachments

Key to the Break Trade is the Chart Must not be messy...(build a list of clean stocks in various sectors) The bars must not wander far from the trendline as this indicates confusion (We want those involved in general agreement on where we should be headed) AND also means those on YOUR side of the trade will have profits to take therefore getting in the way..
 
Can you give me some examples of your reverse scan? Also when do you exit?

What type of orders to you place for entry? Buy/sell stop orders.. to try to catch the break??

For the reverse plays how do you normally enter the trade?
 
Hi Retire45,
just two points:
How do you distinguish the real BO from the fake BO?
I'd gladly play fake BOs with high rate of success.
Could you put few of your plays for tomorrow?
:confused:
 
Quote from retire45:

Trend Fader...

I will call this the Holy Grail... Yes it does exist and is nothing new.. Trading is paradoxically VERY simple while a noisy mind complicates it.

Break scan..

UAUA attached.. Each congestion area is shorted on break with a trigger that is raised daily until it is taken... I took the trade in CAL on the $38 break but got shaken out (1 day) and stupidly did not re-take the trade as the descent accelerated.. Got the one at 21 also.. it dropped so fast denying me the opportunity to screw up the trade as much.. The the 2 last ones occurred while I snoozed so missed those.. A rough fundamental idea of what the sectors faces "should" help to see the trade through. The Bar MUST be red (Last < open) AND below 7 day sma.

For longer term this works even better on Weekly wegdes... XHB as well as Dow broke these last week. The LEH trade is simply a smaller pattern of the same, though flat.

For Longs simply reverse..

The work of the trader is A. Find the trades and patiently wait as the build occurs, Then once in the trade AGAIN patiently allow your account to grow.

Reverse Scan..

For stocks that don't persist like listed stocks tend to the idea is to buy a white bar after 2 or more red ones. The bar must be at least half full and %gain less than 8% or so for the day.. The low of the day should be close to a support area OR a trendline (current VLO Short - perfect but DRYS and TBSI Longs violate white bar rule though.) in favor of the trade. The smaller the bar the better... For shorts simply reverse...

This scan has caused me some trouble as it is harder to enter via triggers and requires my legendary manual input..<g>
More...

When would you enter the vlo trade? Do you want for end of day to review chart.. where would you place entry order?
 
Quote from Trend Fader:

Can you give me some examples of your reverse scan? Also when do you exit?

What type of orders to you place for entry? Buy/sell stop orders.. to try to catch the break??

For the reverse plays how do you normally enter the trade?
More...

Attached... When I exit... well. trading is hard.. depends on your time frame.. I always exit too soon... As a awing trader looking for several points, at market.. no fishing for pennies...
 

Attachments

Quote from Trend Fader:

When would you enter the vlo trade? Do you want for end of day to review chart.. where would you place entry order?
More...

This is a dilemma .. wait for end of day? Probably should as the only reason not to is if you fear a gap (rarely happens and even then frequently comes back to get you.. depends on the markets and the sector).. Perfection will never happen but for me first hour of trading is hell. Better to wait for at least 2 hours to go by to know the true intent... Risk is the bar gets too big but that's life.

I am already short VLO at 49.186 Via a trigger Friday Morning just below the Lows of Wednesday and Thursday.. It's an Ameritrade feature where you can design a preset order that becomes live when certain criteria are "triggered".. like "Short 100 shares of LEN when Dow hits 13200"..
 
WHen do you enter on the reversal plays? DOnt you have to wait for white bar to complete?

Do you enter the next day after a daily high/low break?
 
If a stock has been declining 3 days to a support, I see it as ok to take the white bar even if prior day high is not broken.. Mind you this is being done with a rising overall picture.. Yes you "should" wait for the bar to complete but I am seeking more reward at risk of loss but given the volatility of a lot of the stocks I trade the bar could get large bar possibly which "could" be riskier.. TIE trade attached,.. I took it Friday long while it was white.. well it weakened and the trade may not work.. It could be taken long tomorrow above Friday's high.. you make less for more security but you may lose less. As MACD a bit high this is a 2 to 3 day trade at best.. 2 to 3 minutes for me<gg>

As I have found out, micro-managing entries is a lot less important to a swing traders results than managing the selling part..
 

Attachments

Quote from epetrov:

Hi Retire45,
just two points:
How do you distinguish the real BO from the fake BO?
I'd gladly play fake BOs with high rate of success.
Could you put few of your plays for tomorrow?
:confused:
More...

Volume is usually seen as the decider of Fake or not but the prior breakouts are what I look at... Stocks tend to repeat behavior.. If a stocks frequently fakes breakouts I don't bother.

With the weakness last weak a lot of short setups are riskier now... You can either hop in financials/builders/retailers short and hope for break-even ASAP.. OR go long the superstrong.. Solars, Shippers, Steel, **Coal**, Oil... as they should do well at first signs of Market stability.

I'll scan later today and post a couple if I fins any..
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top