m22au's journal

[m22au]

What is the cost of carry that you are paying on this trade?

Cost of carry using the futures is lower, at about 2% per annum.

USD/CNH now above 6.60, with the CNH weakening above the level it was before the USD-bearish jobs report of 3 June.

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[m22au]

https://twitter dot com/LadPolitics/status/746214367583100930

betting odds versus outcome

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[m22au]

Ladbrokes on its web page:
http://news.ladbrokes.com/politics/...ts-get-the-eu-referendum-result-so-wrong.html

Secondary sources:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...es-get-it-so-wrong-ladbrokes-tries-to-explain

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/24/bookies-got-eu-vote-wrong-ladbrokes-says

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[m22au]

Why did the polls get it so wrong?

http://www.theweek.co.uk/eu-referen...d-cameron-will-resign-by-october-after-brexit

https://mathbabe.org/2016/06/24/why-did-the-brexit-polls-get-it-so-wrong/

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[m22au]

Polls / bookies / other markets:
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/brexit-odds-at-bookies-vs-polls-vs-trade.300637/

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[m22au]

Jim Bianco on CNBC notes that the polls were closer to 50:50, however betting markets (and also GBP/USD) were pricing a much higher chance of Remain.

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[m22au]

Realtime sources of odds for future EU-exit referenda:

Betfair
Oddschecker
IG Markets binary

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[m22au]

European banks that didn't go up on Tue 28 June 2016:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-28/european-dead-cat-bounce-dies-big-banks-end-lower

the bounce was nothing but an opportunity for sellers to escape at better prices. While Deutsche eked out a tiny gain, RBS, Unicredit, Credit Suisse, and UBS all tumbled to end the day red...

USA: RBS CS UBS DB Unicredit
Europe: RBS.L UCG.MI DBK.DE Credit Suisse UBS

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[m22au]

On Thu 30 June 2016
After 30 mins in Europe, banks (down 1.8%) are leading equities on the downside

Unicredit UCG
Intesa Sanpaolo ISP
BMPS
RBS

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[m22au]

Japan bond market

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...d-market-world-has-only-one-inevitable-ending

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