m22au's journal

There has been plenty of talk about Shinzo Abe's policies to weaken the JPY, and in turn, reflate the stockmarket to drive the virtuous 'wealth effect'.

However the following Zero Hedge article (and links to other related articles) point out that while politicians and central bankers can create additional currency, they are largely powerless to stop it from having politically undesirable effects, such as increasing the prices of food and energy.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...rices-14-19-inflation-surges-all-wrong-places

The article ends with an interesting rhetorical question:

"Which then begs the real question: how long until Abe's government mandate is cut short by populist anger due to out of control inflation in staples and unrest?"
 
Bank run in Cyprus following a 6.75% haircut on deposits under 100,000 EUR and 9.9% haircut on deposits over 100,000 EUR

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-...aircut-bailout-turns-saver-panic-bank-runs-br

While I understand that the 9.9% haircut on deposits over 100,000 is largely targetted at Russian criminals, this action will have at least some Greek deposit holders (and then maybe also those in Spain and Italy) worrying more about the safety of their deposits.

"And what happens when the Cypriot bank run that has taken the country by storm this morning spreads everywhere else, now that the scab over Europe's biggest festering wound is torn throughout the periphery as all the other PIIGS realize they too are expendable on the altar of mollifying voters and investors in the other countries that make up Europe's disunion."

"More importantly, as of this morning Europe has finally grasped that there is a 6.75% to 9.9% premium to holding physical cash in your mattress rather than having it stored with your local friendly insolvent bank."
 
http://azizonomics.com/2013/03/16/t...king-system-than-giving-depositors-a-haircut/

"Even if only 10% or 20% of bank customers in Spain choose to withdraw their funds, that has the potential to cause serious liquidity problems.

"Whether or not this actually happens is another question — although with unemployment running high throughout the Eurozone, those with savings may be particularly wary of losing them. This decision — no matter how many times Draghi and Merkel and Barroso reassure the crowds — makes bank runs throughout the Eurozone much more likely as savers seek to avoid the possibility of a haircut by moving to cash or tangible assets."
 
Quote from Daal:

Any info on what happens to USD deposits in Cyprus banks?
More...

I don't know for sure, but as a pure guess, I would imagine they would also suffer a haircut.
 
"Bernanke Seen Keeping Up Pace of QE Until Fourth Quarter"

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-...eping-up-pace-of-qe-until-fourth-quarter.html

I disagree with the majority of the survey participants, both on the amount of money-printing starts to decline (Q4 2013) and when it finishes entirely (H1 2014).

With regards to tightening of monetary policy, Bernanke is all talk and no action. Assuming that he is in charge of the Fed at the time, I doubt he will reduce money printing before Q3 2014, and I doubt it will end before 2015.
 
Quote from m22au:

Joe Weisenthal declaring premature victory for Federal Reserve policy:

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-gold-collapse-is-great-news-for-the-elites-2013-4

Not necessarily a perfect indicator, but my uneducated guess is that his post also marks
(1) a multi-week bottom in gold at 1491.40.
(2) a multi-month bottom in the gold:S&P 500 ratio
of 0.945 (1491.40 / 1577)
More...

UPDATE:

My uneducated guesses above were too early.

However I still believe it is too early to declare victory for Federal Reserve policy.
 
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