m22au's journal

and another piece:

Global Currency Wars Enter New Stage; Brazil Calls Off Truce, South Korea Reviews "All Possibilities", Philippines Threatens "Prudential Limits"

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/global-currency-wars-enter-new-stage.html



Quote from m22au:

Following on from the above, Mish Shedlock is covering the idea that there are few safe fiat currencies remaining, ecause "no major country wants a strong currency".

Title:
Japan Intervenes, Yen Plunges; What's Next?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/japan-intervenes-yen-plunges-whats-next.html
More...
 
UK banks noticeably weak after LLOY reported a big loss

LLOY -6.13%
BARC -4.9%
RBS (slightly stronger than the above 2) -4.5%

I saw part of a CNBC Europe interview earlier today where an analyst said that if Ireland defaults and there is a 20% (?) haircut, then RBS needs 20 billion GBP in additional capital.

I'm guessing (haven't checked the figures yet) that LLOY and BARC may be in a similar predicament.
 
for the chart-watchers out there:

gold (GC) December 2011 low-of-day is 1763.80 reached at 10.23am.

This is a 154.10 fall from the 1917.90 high reached on Sunday 22 August just after 6pm.

More importantly, it is less than one US Dollar from the 1763.60 low reached on 15 August evening at about 9pm.
 
for comment:

Is it possible that central banks could be buying oil (specifically the Brent contract and/or taking physical delivery) with their reserves?

I'm definitely not talking about converting a large portion of their reserves, but is it possible they could be allocating maybe 1% to 5% of their reserves to oil?

Interested in your thoughts.

Snapshot:

October 2011 $110.63
June 2012 $108.93
December 2012 $107.89

ES 1156.50

ES / COIL = 1156.50 / 110.63 = 10.45

still well below the 11.41 level mentioned in a different thread:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=3259174#post3259174
 
Excellent article from Brian Rogers of Fator Securities
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-welcome-currency-wars

This piece touches on various issues of importance, that I have discussed in this thread and elsewhere on ET:

* fiat currencies versus gold and silver
* fiat currency wars generally
* recent strong performance of brent oil, and the likelihood that it remains high due to central bank money printing
* Eurozone endgame - potential scenarios
* effect of the Eurozone troubles on European banks, and also US banks
* the end of the US 30-year bond bull market, and gold's increasing role as the ultimate reserve currency
 
"EU set to speed recapitalisation of 16 banks"
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/49d6240e-e527-11e0-bdb8-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss

European officials look set to speed up plans to recapitalise the 16 banks that came close to failing last summer’s pan-EU stress tests as part of a co-ordinated effort to reassure the markets about the strength of the 27-nation bloc’s banking sector.

A senior French official said the 16 banks regarded to be close to the threshold would now have to seek new funds immediately. Although there has been widespread speculation that French banks are seeking more capital, none is on the list. Other European officials said discussions were still under way.

The move would affect mostly mid-tier banks. Seven are Spanish, two are from Germany, Greece and Portugal, and one each from Italy, Cyprus and Slovenia. The list includes Germany’s HSH Nordbank and Banco Popolare of Italy.

**snip**

The other 14 banks on the list are:
Espirito Santo and Banco Português of Portugal;
Piraeus Bank and Hellenic Postbank of Greece;
Banco Popular Espanol, Bankinter, Caixa Galicia, BFA-Bankia, Banco Cívica, Caixa Ontinyent, Banco De Sabadell of Spain;
Nova Ljubljanska Banka of Slovenia;
Cyprus’s Marfin Popular Bank and Norddeutsche Landesbank of Germany.

*************

http://twitter.com/JEliasof/status/116942198884413440
"Seven are Spanish, two are from Germany, Greece and Portugal, and one each from Italy, Cyprus and Slovenia."

Spain (7)
Banco Popular Espanol, Bankinter, Caixa Galicia, BFA-Bankia,
Banco Cívica, Caixa Ontinyent, Banco De Sabadell

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=POP:SM
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BKT:SM
Caixa Galicia
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BKIA:SM (possibly)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BCIV:SM
Caixa Ontinyent
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SAB:SM

Germany (2)
Norddeutsche Landesbank
HSH Nordbank

Greece (2)
Piraeus Bank and Hellenic Postbank

Portugal (2)
Espirito Santo and Banco Português

Italy (1)
Banco Popolare
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=BP:IM

Cyprus (1)
Marfin Popular Bank

Slovenia (1)
Nova Ljubljanska Banka
 
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