m22au's journal

m22au · Jun 2, 2010

Yes, I know I am very very late to this story, but I'm interested to read about the derisking in RIG:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rig-cds-market-500550-100bps-day-all-time-wides

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HAL,APC,RIG,BP&d=s

other names I will have a look at SII SLB

m22au · Jun 4, 2010

Although I am happy that I made some sizable gains from shorting GBP/USD, EUR/USD and European banks since late April, I'm a bit disappointed that I didn't recognise (1) just how bad the situation is and (2) the underperformance of equities in France, Italy, Spain, Ireland and Greece (versus S&P 500) until late April.

So related to that, I want to make sure that if and when the bond market vigilantes attack the UK and Japan (and any other country), that I see it well before it hits the front page of the newspapers.

What I am I looking for? A sustained rise in the yield of the 10-year bond issued by the relevant country. The other important indicator is a depreciation of the relevant currency versus the US Dollar.

So while the GBP has had big decline since December 2009, the 10-year gilt yield is at about 3.50%, which is roughly where it was in December 2009 when the EUR/USD and GBP/USD made a big multi-month peak. On the other hand, yields on 10 year bonds issued by Greece, Spain etc. have soared since December 2009.

So for future reference, Bloomberg looks like a great source of bond yield charts:

Japan: 10 year JGB
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GJGBBNCH:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GJGBBNCH:IND

I'll start to pay attention to the Kyle Bass thesis if and when this yield reaches 1.50%. Until then, the Europe story (including Hungary) is much more interesting.

UK: 10 year gilt
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=GUKG10:IND
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=GUKG10:IND

m22au · Jun 8, 2010

Thanks to Banjo for this link:

http://markets.ft.com/markets/bonds.asp

m22au · Jun 18, 2010

Ghost of Cutten · Jun 19, 2010

Quote from m22au:

Long silver @ $5.00

Are you still long?

m22au · Jun 19, 2010

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

Are you still long?

In 2007 or 2008 I (finally) realised that silver is considered partly precious metal, but also part industrial metal. So I sold all of my silver and bought an equivalent amount of gold.

I'm still long gold. However I am aware that in a Kondratiev Winter (like the one that started in approximately 2007) that gold can decline in nominal terms.

In other words, in the (unlikely) situation that governments and central banks actually allow a deflationary collapse to happen properly, then gold will collapse, just like it did in late 2008.

So to hedge against this possibility, I am short S&P 500. Basically I'm targetting a (gold:S&P500) ratio of 2.00

For further info, here is a post I made in November 2009:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2625280#post2625280

There are many articles and web sites devoted to "gold versus stocks" type trades. One example is

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/

m22au · Jul 2, 2010

Useful market data page at WSJ web site:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/marketsdata.html

m22au · Jul 3, 2010

Just an update regarding some potential shorts. I have positions in some of these, and others are just 'on the radar'.

Keep in mind that we're getting closer and closer to the point where Bernanke / Geithner / Obama pull the trigger and introduce some additional fiscal and/or monetary stimulus. If this happens, fundamental analysis on the stocks below could be a waste of time if the stockmarket melts up, like it did in the 12 months after March 2009.

************************************************

non-TBTF banks in US:
FBC

banks in PIIGS countries:
NBG, STD, BBVA, AIB

mortgage insurers:
ABK, MBI, PMI, RDN, MTG

newspapers
(NYT looks to be the weakest)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NYT,GCI,LEE,MEG,MNI,WPO+Basic+Chart

airlines
(generally looking to short the weakest stock or stocks,
which is VBA.AX, and then AMR, AAI, JBLU, SKYW and RJET)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VBA.AX,AMR,AAI,JBLU,SKYW,RJET,DAL,CAL,UAUA,LCC,ALK,LUV&d=s

homebuilders:
(stocks of most interest are HOV, KBH)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HOV,BZH,KBH,RYL,PHM,DHI,TOL,MDC,LEN,SPF,MHO,BHS,MTH,NVR,XHB,IYR&d=s

REITs:
PLD, DDR

drybulk shippers:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DRYS,EGLE,GNK,EXM,DSX,ONAV&d=s

retailers:
AEO, APP, JCP, BKS, NWY, PBY

casinos:
(weakest = everything but WYNN and LVS)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MGM,ISLE,MPEL,PENN,BYD,ASCA,IGT,WYNN,LVS&d=s

Overvalued hype which will (1) probably not succeed in long term and/or (2) is possibly overvalued now:
TSLA

car related:
GT, SIRI, ISCA

m22au · Jul 31, 2010

Another update regarding some potential shorts. I have positions in some of these, and others are just 'on the radar'.

Keep in mind that we're getting closer and closer to the point where Bernanke / Geithner / Obama pull the trigger and introduce some additional fiscal and/or monetary stimulus. If this happens, fundamental analysis on the stocks below could be a waste of time if the stockmarket melts up, like it did in the 12 months after March 2009.

************************************************

non-TBTF banks in US, particularly those with bad earnings reports for Q2 of 2010:
FBC WIBC WTNY SBIB PNFP HBHC SNV BXS BPOP FHN WL

banks in PIIGS countries:
NBG, STD, BBVA, AIB

mortgage insurers:
ABK, PMI, MTG, RDN, MBI

airlines
(stocks of most interest are VBA.AX, AMR, AAI, SKYW and RJET)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VBA.AX,AMR,AAI,JBLU,SKYW,RJET,DAL,CAL,UAUA,LCC,ALK,LUV&d=s

homebuilders:
(stocks of most interest are HOV, KBH)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HOV,BZH,KBH,RYL,PHM,DHI,TOL,MDC,LEN,SPF,MHO,BHS,MTH,NVR,XHB,IYR&d=s

drybulk shippers:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DRYS,EGLE,GNK,EXM,DSX,ONAV&d=s

retailers:
AEO, APP, GAP, JCP, BKS, NWY, PBY

casinos:
(weakest = everything but WYNN and LVS)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=MGM,ISLE,MPEL,PENN,BYD,ASCA,WYNN,LVS&d=s

gaming machine related:
GCA, SGMS, BYI, WMS, IGT

car rental and cruise:
HTZ CAR CCL RCL

Overvalued and hyped battery stocks which will (1) probably not succeed in long term and/or (2) is possibly overvalued now:
TSLA AONE HEV XIDE

Energy related with a lot of debt on balance sheet
DYN RRI MIR

car related:
GT, SIRI, ISCA

newspapers
(NYT looks to be the weakest)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=NYT,GCI,LEE,MEG,MNI,WPO+Basic+Chart

REITs:
JOE, PLD, DDR

Medical stocks with SEC investigations:
AMED

Uncategorised:
SRZ LVLT MOT IOC

m22au · Sep 9, 2010

Most of the trades / trade ideas that I present in this journal relate to my multi-month and multi-year trades.

I also trade with a shorter timeframe (ie, daytrading, trading with a multi-day and multi-week timeframe), however I don't have much desire to post the details of these in this journal.

I read with interest the article by darkhorse regarding economic psychology / philosophy and obviously this relates a lot to trading timeframes.
http://mercenarytrader.com/2010/04/keynesian-psychology-with-austrian-tails/

*****

I believe that the EUR/USD is going to parity, or even lower, due to the huge debt problems in Europe. (Yes, I recognise the similar problems in the USA, but it's likely that the demand for US bonds will remain for much longer than the demand for PIIGS debt).

I closed by EUR/USD short at lower levels because it was no longer falling on bad news / risk aversion. (ie, timeframe reasons as per the darkhorse article.)

However it was noticeable that this morning while the S&P 500 made a new post-Labor Day high, the EUR/USD barely nudged above Wednesday's high, let alone the 1.2920 area from 6 September.

The news from Europe continues to be bad, and the action this week suggests that the FX market is starting to pay attention again.

As such I reinstated my full EUR/USD short position this morning.