Lumber

Is there any tariff-effect on the price of lumber ?
My gosh, it really has taken a beating past 6 weeks.....
400 appears to be the next support level....previously was resistance.
 
Out @ 451.50

I think it still has a ways down to go, but I'm not interestested in being locked into the position anymore. Plus rolling it is a a pain in the ass. I learned a bunch being in this trade, that I did it for a profit is a bonus. I probably won't be doing thinly traded futures in the the future (sic).
 
Nice move out. November down to $410....wow ! And the market is in huge backwardation.
Low liquidity is great when you are on the right side of the trade with a large open profit position.
 
Oil is heading down from here.
Don't have any levels, just a bearish outlook at this point in time.
Expecting support not to hold up.
 
themickey said:
Oil is heading down from here.
Don't have any levels, just a bearish outlook at this point in time.
Expecting support not to hold up.
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I think you posted to the wrong thread, this is the lumber one.
 
Handle123 said:
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Lumber been an interesting ride, it is one of few markets don't have options, so I use options of IP International paper, and it is a stock I am well versed on as I have traded it for many years, it adheres to many chart patterns well. So as you never be covered enough on limit moves, I took additional Calls as I am use to longer times of losses in the futures till I find the extremes, longest were 23 in crude oil at 147 and yet I was ahead of monies as a couple of the shorts hit the first targets and resumed to make new highs, very much how the indexes recently have done the same. I noticed with Lumber it do 2 limit up moves then 3rd day hit or get very close to limit so I was selling short on 3rd day and buy options in IP to cover, took few more tries of being stopped out in Lumber and exiting options later and on May 18th sold off the high/hedged. What is interesting to me is ability to make money on overall position as seldom in the futures do I get out at breakeven, but cause of the volatility of this market, flipping on 4th different way of trading long term system due to volatility and time stops, keeping the options made money over all. Options are often a chess game of what "if's" and should be covered way back in Trading Plan, always know the answers before the questions. I took added position on the 29th/hedged-see how it goes.

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I am just going to keep doing rollovers and staying short. But unlike other markets where I add on at every good opportunity as it is in confirmed trend, not so with Lumber, one trick area pony. I will remain short till 286 or lower.
 
treeman said:
Out @ 451.50

I think it still has a ways down to go, but I'm not interestested in being locked into the position anymore. Plus rolling it is a a pain in the ass. I learned a bunch being in this trade, that I did it for a profit is a bonus. I probably won't be doing thinly traded futures in the the future (sic).
More...

treeman
indeed the down momentum is rather strong. historically 400 to 440 band seems to be quite a strong resistance.

Lumber price started to reverse in Apr 18.
Any particular reason?
 
Handle123 said:
I am just going to keep doing rollovers and staying short. But unlike other markets where I add on at every good opportunity as it is in confirmed trend, not so with Lumber, one trick area pony. I will remain short till 286 or lower.
More...

Om My Limit down today? Am staying short, lol
 
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