Lumber is starting to look interesting

[Sequoia1321]

Yes, that is the point I have been trying to make throughout this thread from day one.

If you are a Commercial with inventory who can make or take delivery - then ridiculously thin gappy illiquid markets can be somewhat manageable. But alas you are not.

I though some people earlier in the thread mentioned that they had placed some trades. Anyways, I'd rather not mess with it. Thanks for the input.

 

[Trader13]

This market is a good Use Case for a speculative OTM long option.

 

[bone]

This market is a good Use Case for a speculative OTM long option.

Yes and No. I have some past professional experience trading electricity options -and there's a price to be paid for getting into and out of options in illiquid markets.

 

[nillionaire]

What an incredible move here. No sign of a top yet.

 

[Sequoia1321]

What an incredible move here. No sign of a top yet.

Yes, all time high it looks like. Seems to be covid related. When it drops I imagine it'll be hard and fast.

 

[nillionaire]

Yes, all time high it looks like. Seems to be covid related. When it drops I imagine it'll be hard and fast.

Lumber shortage, projected to last thru year end.

https://www.ncnewsonline.com/pennsy...cle_1f1cdc58-df73-5ce9-9e05-b9f0d79fd2aa.html

 

[bone]

So this is a great example of a dangerously thin exchange market that’s dominated (manipulated) by Commercials. The Commercials don’t trade the exchange market - they prefer the OTC physical market.

1. The Commercial Producers (Georgia Pacific, etc.) have absolute control over what stays in the ground (trees) and what gets harvested and converted into building materials.

2. The Commercial Users and Producers have a substantial information advantage as compared to other more information disseminated equity and capital markets.

 

[maxinger]

Looking at the lumber long term chart, seems to be heading for major resistance at 480:

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=CME:LBS1!

Anybody experienced in this contract? Thinking about shorting it around there for a long term trade, maybe few months to a year.

seems like you have midas touch or a powerful crystal ball.

Since the day you posted about lumber, price has been on the rise.
price as gone up from 300 to 730, ie 2.5X increase
In fact, it has broken the record high

anyway, I'd avoid trading such futures due to its extremely low volume

 

[bone]

I saved him a fortune talking him out of that gem (fading “resistance” in a thin Producer dominated OTC market).

seems like you have midas touch or a powerful crystal ball.

Since the day you posted about lumber, price has been on the rise.
price as gone up from 300 to 730, ie 2.5X increase
In fact, it has broken the record high

anyway, I'd avoid trading such futures due to its extremely low volume

 

[Sequoia1321]

seems like you have midas touch or a powerful crystal ball.

Since the day you posted about lumber, price has been on the rise.
price as gone up from 300 to 730, ie 2.5X increase
In fact, it has broken the record high

anyway, I'd avoid trading such futures due to its extremely low volume

I'm glad I didn't short it. Changed my mind last minute.

I saved him a fortune talking him out if that gem (fading resistance).

Yes. Thanks for that. It was helpful. Also the contract was very heavy, and saw a video from "The Uneducated Economist" Youtube channel that it was going to go higher.