Lumber Futures up 200% - Lumber mania is sweeping North America

Girija said:
So surprised to hear from you Kevin, Lumber price is a supply side issue more than a inflationary hike. Wondering why would you be long as opposed to short. It looks like a good candidate for short to me. You are totally bearish on the index but bullish on lumber? Am I missing anything.
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I'm not bearish on the index. I'm bullish on sectors going up, which currently include commodities like lumber, and metals FCX X SLV GDX.
 
Would anyone ever establish a short position in lumber futures 3-4 moths out?
The September ‘21 contract had a volume of 125 on Friday.
I know these are illiquid and thinly traded but there will always be buyers after prices normalize.
 
Jad930 said:
Would anyone ever establish a short position in lumber futures 3-4 moths out?
The September ‘21 contract had a volume of 125 on Friday.
I know these are illiquid and thinly traded but there will always be buyers after prices normalize.
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Perhaps a commercial, such as a mill, hedging.
 
probably, some people is doing the "God's work" like GS did with oil back then.

oilpeak.png


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Inflation raging everywere and the drunk fed printing to the sky . The fed must be brought to their knees to teach them the lesson since civilization started . You can’t print to the sky without retribution.
 
FSU said:
Not sure where you're getting the 100K number. The article you linked says the average house costs about 30K more due to lumber.

"Prices have, in turn, skyrocketed. For years, the price of 1,000 board feet of lumber has generally traded in the $200 to $400 range. It’s now well above $1,000. (One board foot is 12x12x1 inches, and the average new single-family home takes about 16,000 board feet of lumber to construct.) A new house that would have cost $10,000 in wood to get off the ground a couple of years ago now costs $40,000 worth of wood — assuming, that is, you can even get your hands on the lumber."
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Lumber isn't the only thing increasing, so (as a former contractor) I would say that a 300% increase in the cost of lumber would easily suggest a $100k increase in total costs. Maybe more.
 
Is speculating in lumber futures out of the question due to liquidity?
not sure I am familiar with what GS did shorting oil in 2008?
 
misterkel said:
Lumber isn't the only thing increasing, so (as a former contractor) I would say that a 300% increase in the cost of lumber would easily suggest a $100k increase in total costs. Maybe more.
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Did you build only one price house?

I wouldn't think so.

So why say $100k increase when some houses are built at a cost of 100k (granted not many) and some at a cost of 1mill or way more?
 
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