Lumber Fundamentals

[trainee2006]

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/storie...ROL-?SITE=ORONT&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

Notable excerpt:
"But the Forest Service didn't anticipate the drop in timber prices"

... don't you just love government estimates?

 

[trainee2006]

Lumber futures at or near lows.
Sentiment is at all time lows.

Can a bullish case be made for lumber? Is lumber the ultimate contrarian trade?

Or can a further bearish case be made for lumber?

What say you?

b

 

[nazzdack]

It's worth a nibble on the long-side. The seasonal should remain bullish until the end of January before the "February Break" emerges.

 

[trainee2006]

Prices on lumber futures are tanking and yet this story appeared on CBS today.

I'm trying to get my hands around this inconsistency... and perhaps make a few bucks...

Any comments?

snurl.com/1w8cq
or this (same link)
http://tinyurl.com/3aokkg

 

[trainee2006]

Another wierd lumber story...
from the New York Post...
http://snurl.com/1was4

The story says lumber prices are going up but then how come the futures keep heading down?

A real head scratcher.

 

[MGJ]

Here is an (in)famous book, which suggests a specific trading methodology for use in situations exactly like lumber's curren status: (link).

Do I have the guts to trade lumber using this approach? Hell no. But maybe you do.