lumber~Case-Shiller~permits chart

W

Wallace

attached, a 1990 - current compilation of the Lumber futures, Case-Shiller prices and
US building permits charts
lumber prices were very bouncy during the 93H-04H period, 04 being the peak of lm price
coinciding with C-S's '10 City Composite' price line H, tho permits continued to peak into
05/06 , and while lm and home prices have jumped, permits may take another drop

tick min fluctuation $.10 / mbf ($11 per contract) Daily Price Limits $10 / mbf above or
below previous day's settlement price; expandable to $15 / mbf
the trading bang for buck is ok, but the daily volume is usually less than 1,000 , so a it's
a B&H type of trading vehicle - - - whatever happened to plywood ?
 

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funny you point this out, i'm in the building biz and just went over these charts w/ some buddys last week( no knowledge of charting).
here in the hamptons(new york) we're supposed to be "recession proof". work is pretty tough but there are houses still going up. mainly in the 1-3 mil range with larger ones also.
btw 1 mil is entry level here.
just when you think nobody else ever looks at charts like this.......
 
i initially thought lumber would have shown a tighter corelation with permits and not have
all the ralliles to 400+ , and be predictive of house price and building but the permits and
NAHB do a better job of that
the other building product i was thinking of is copper but that doesn't work, especially
after 2002 with the price going stratospheric

i know little about the building business but surprised to some extent there's any new
home building being done in the States at all with so much excess on the market, tho
historically low mortgage rates is an incentive for new-builds
then again i saw a report where one small builder got hit by his cc bank cutting his limit
which he'd been using for revolving credit - can build but can't finance

current NAHB charts: http://www.housingbubblebust.com/HsgData/NAHB/HMI.html

maybe you should try Canada - 'Canadian housing market remains on fire' and etc:
http://news.google.com/news/search?aq=f&um=1&cf=all&ned=ca&hl=en&q=canada+housing+market
 
Quote from Wallace:

found this NAHB index chart, interesting since it's quite different compared
with the above, tops out in 1999
More...
there is a pretty nice head and shoulders finishing on your chart
 
ammo, didn't notice the h&s until you pointed it out ! -
even tho it's massive !!

what i saw was the Reversal formation at the top of 1999
there's something similar in 86 but none for 94, tho 95 has
a small one forming a base, unfortunately that formation
doesn't always appear even when you dig down to the
smallest timeframe
 
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