Maybe the good guys will win this time.
Ludwig Von Mises
- Thread starter RCG Trader
- Start date
Somebody sounds scared.
2-3 yrs no way, look at Japan more than 20 yrs of stimulus.
Look at Europe they're still limping along and they've been playing big gubbermint socialism a lot longer than we have.
Believe it or not things are a long ways from reaching a crescendo.
The Big One, for our generation, happened in 2008. What we have now is a ton of disbelief that that's over with for now, for us. Minsky wrote, and I believe he was the correct one, that each cycle lasts a little longer and ends with a bigger crash. Looking back since 1982, 1990 lasted a bit, and the recovery from that was weak enough, at first, to dethrone Bush the First.
Then along came the dot com bust. Greenspan, who I firmly believe scented doom on the wind, dropped rates to what we all at the time thought was rockbottom. The recovery from that was long and weak, then along came 2008, an even bigger bust, from which we are now in an even weaker recovery, for now. But like the one from Bush the First, this one will get stronger and last longer than anyone now imagines.
Then a bust that makes everyone think it's 2008 all over again, except it won't be, and then after that, finally, a truly stable environment should set in, and we will again get into a new cycle where each bust is a little more severe and each recovery takes a little longer until the next big generational bust.
The fun part is that, like the Great Depression or even 1980 to 1982, the two big ones before 2008, there will be large geopolitical consequences.
The Great Depression led to WWII, while the early eighties ended up with Eastern European communism imploding.
Which part of the world will give us some fun this time? I'm guessing China, since once growth stops their CP will have a tough time defending the legitimacy of their dictatorship. Could be building up right now as I write this. The Financial Times had an interesting analysis pointing out that Mexico has been doing well because it is gaining back business it lost to China as Chinese wages catch up to Mexico, leaving a business to throw in the cost of shipping from China, not to mention the longer time it takes for delivery, and then looking at Mexico and realizing the cost of shipping is lower AND it takes a lot less time to get delivery of the product.
Anyway, it's kind of like having a big earthquake: there's always a large aftershock.
Then along came the dot com bust. Greenspan, who I firmly believe scented doom on the wind, dropped rates to what we all at the time thought was rockbottom. The recovery from that was long and weak, then along came 2008, an even bigger bust, from which we are now in an even weaker recovery, for now. But like the one from Bush the First, this one will get stronger and last longer than anyone now imagines.
Then a bust that makes everyone think it's 2008 all over again, except it won't be, and then after that, finally, a truly stable environment should set in, and we will again get into a new cycle where each bust is a little more severe and each recovery takes a little longer until the next big generational bust.
The fun part is that, like the Great Depression or even 1980 to 1982, the two big ones before 2008, there will be large geopolitical consequences.
The Great Depression led to WWII, while the early eighties ended up with Eastern European communism imploding.
Which part of the world will give us some fun this time? I'm guessing China, since once growth stops their CP will have a tough time defending the legitimacy of their dictatorship. Could be building up right now as I write this. The Financial Times had an interesting analysis pointing out that Mexico has been doing well because it is gaining back business it lost to China as Chinese wages catch up to Mexico, leaving a business to throw in the cost of shipping from China, not to mention the longer time it takes for delivery, and then looking at Mexico and realizing the cost of shipping is lower AND it takes a lot less time to get delivery of the product.
Anyway, it's kind of like having a big earthquake: there's always a large aftershock.
In short, you see a wedge, lower highs, higher lows and then a breakout to the upside?
Tea Party has a social agenda, and turned a sensible GOP into pro-life, anti-immigrant, muslim hating, gay hating, education hating nutbirds.
Todd Akin is now your poster child. The sane GOP still hold the purse strings right now, so they cut him off, but he is still in the race because he think he can win. What does that say?
Laughable fucking thread: ROTFLMAO
Why is it so funny? Because history repeats itself time and again.
"It can't happen here". Can it? Tell us RCG.
There are men who wish to control others. There are those who wish to be left alone. As long as those two beliefs exist, there will be strife. End of story.
Why is it so funny? Because history repeats itself time and again.
"It can't happen here". Can it? Tell us RCG.
There are men who wish to control others. There are those who wish to be left alone. As long as those two beliefs exist, there will be strife. End of story.
Big swing up starting sometime soon that will be the last part of this bull, then big swing down after a few years (the aftershock), flat for a while after that, and then the kind of more normal cycle we had in the fifties and sixties. In volatility terms, lots of it for the next few years, then a collapse in volatility for a while.
I figure after the next big down the markets will be so boring people will forget it even exists. There'll be like two guys trading it, against each other.