Luckier Than God

lawrence-lugar

lawrence-lugar

How you could have turned $1,000 into billions of dollars by perfectly trading the S&P 500 this year" December 16, 2013
https://qz.com/157404/how-you-could...rs-by-perfectly-trading-the-sp-500-this-year/

"there would be only a one-in-3.53 trevigintillion (3.53 x 1072) chance of matching these results."

a fun, hypothetical, perfect storm scenario;

How_you_could_have_turned_1_000_into_billions_o.png
:sneaky: o_O
These percentages are kind of small compared to potential options returns
 
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Interesting, but in reality, the trades would no longer be possible once the amount of funds in play becomes large enough to start moving the market/stock traded, making one essentially the market. You then become the "fat whale" that others can front run and trade against.
 
It doesn't get any more pointless than this. Be on the right side of SP every day and trade ES with maximum leverage, you'd outperform these results. Not even touching options territory here.
 
lawrence-lugar said:
How you could have turned $1,000 into billions of dollars by perfectly trading the S&P 500 this year" December 16, 2013
https://qz.com/157404/how-you-could...rs-by-perfectly-trading-the-sp-500-this-year/

"there would be only a one-in-3.53 trevigintillion (3.53 x 1072) chance of matching these results."

a fun, hypothetical, perfect storm scenario;
More...

What is the result if he takes the worst return every day?

I think the probability to hit this loss is more favorable than the probability to hit the profits.

But one thing is clearly the key if you see this unrealistic performance: use compounding, as compounding makes the whole difference between small returns and big returns.
I know somebody who got rich in producing shoe laces. He had almost no profit in selling 1 pair, but he sold millions every month. So profit multiplied by frequency is the profit you should focus on. if you receive 1 cent but 1 million times every month, you receive $10,000. Much better than make $1,000 profit but only once every month.

That explains why daytraders (if they are consistently profitable) can make huge returns and buy and hold investors not.
 
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lawrence-lugar said:
How you could have turned $1,000 into billions of dollars by perfectly trading the S&P 500 this year" December 16, 2013
https://qz.com/157404/how-you-could...rs-by-perfectly-trading-the-sp-500-this-year/

"there would be only a one-in-3.53 trevigintillion (3.53 x 1072) chance of matching these results."

a fun, hypothetical, perfect storm scenario;

How_you_could_have_turned_1_000_into_billions_o.png
:sneaky: o_O
These percentages are kind of small compared to potential options returns
More...


In stock traders almanac there are pages that give you market probability calendar....
 
Many of these stocks were in well established up tends and showing stronger retaliative strength than the SP500. Trend & swing traders would have been long on some of these stocks. This is why I trade stocks and not just derivatives, it is much easier to stay involved in a trend when the stocks are much stronger than the market, as is taking smaller positions carefully layering onto winners. Maxing out leverage via futures each day on the index and hoping to be on the right side is why 95% fail (pure greed + hope) - it is very wreckless and goes completely counter to using sound risk mgmt.

"The longer I trade the more I am convinced that size and risk exposure will determine your trading success in the long term."
 
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