Luck

Originally posted by Commisso
Candle,

I completely understand expectancy :)
Your looking at it with a macro view, which i dont think has anything to do with the micro view...
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Commisso, with all due respect, if you understand expectancy, then you should also understand elementary probability theory.

If you define the "micro view" as the result of an individual trade, and the "macro view" as the sum of all trades, then the average probability of each individual trade is the same as the average probability of all trades. The probability of all trades has to be the sum of its parts. This is high school math, guys.

Now if you want to argue that each individual trade (what you call the "micro view") has a different probability, I will agree. The only thing we can know with statistical sampling is the average probability of each individual trade.

But to say that each individual trade is 50/50 is to say that the average probability of all trades is 50/50, and that you believe in random walk.
 
This discussion is, of course, interesting and very intellectual making some people feel really good about themselves but for all practical purposes it is useless.
All you need to know about randomness and how it relates to individual trader is in the book "Fooled by Randomness" by N. N. Taleb (spec.p.69-80)

After you read it if you realize that it all comes down to money management, risk-control, self control and flexibility you understand what trading is all about.

I do not mean to approve or disapprove any previous comments, just make the board little more helpful.
 
candletrader said:
LUCK (also known as probability) + DISCIPLINE = PROFITS

Luck is a random variable on a trade by trade basis, but discipline assembles luck into a non-random distribution over the longer run... resulting in profits.
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Good points\ but luck is a gamblers term + another ttrend follower called it a small sample. 60% rule[example above] only applies\ if the past exactly repeated like the future + it seldom does.............................................................................Webster uses it ''the loser mumbles something about bad luck. ''
As far as Mark D psychobabble LOL= Ok but if the '' outcome off SINGLE trade is random'' that means someone is dumb enough to believe in '''random markets''LOL:D:D
 
jasonukirov said:
It is bad book because Robert says not the things you need and earned only at the expense of the book
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NO sir\ not a bad book just has some bad parts; The book he wrote with Don Trump trumps many other books. That's sort of like saying a Don Channel is bad just because the market has sideways slop -chop trend.................................................................................
 
While luck plays a critical role in trading, there is a decisive difference between a dumb luck and an educated guess. The former can only last so long. Before long, your luck will run out and you'll truly feel dumb. So if you want to be lucky, at the very least take an educated guess. Obviously, this will only come with many years of experience.
 
schizo said:
While luck plays a critical role in trading, there is a decisive difference between a dumb luck and an educated guess.
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The irony is...most so-called...educated, professional, guesses in the market....turns out to be, rather, nothing more than just dumb luck and complete failure trades. Both sides...are essentially completely gambling...their results says so.
Dumb money and Smart money.....are both dumb money. Amateurs and Professionals are the same breed.
Make a million dollar turtle, :D
 
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