The bond spreads which they were betting on to revert back to their mean, eventually did. But not before spiraling out of control in the global chaos that ensued at the time.
It's as if the market knew, or perhaps it just likes to spiral out of control by itself every few years, more than we think.
Nevertheless, the large banks and institutions which the Fed forced to bail out LTCM actually made a profit from those bond spreads, because they eventually did revert back.
So, technically, Genius didn't fail.
Jay