Lowry's Update

dg, old faithful, did Friday make the cut?


interesting that some downgrades were faded on Thursday. even if there's a spike down (and corresponding spike up in VIX), this could be the season turning (i'm not convinced at the moment. just raising the possibility).

chas
 
No not even close. I did not run the numbers but Yahoo.finance shows 55/45 up/down volume. Unless it is a clearly extreme day, I don't bother withdoing the calculations.

Besides the 90% down day last week, there was one almost 90% end of January, and there may be more coming.

IMO, people are getting fooled into long positions. New lows are likely on the horizon.

War will come and go (quickly I hope), but the same features of the stock market will remain.
 
can't wait to see what happens today.

if i recall, the 'back to back' high vol' days can actually be a few days apart, no?

man... the green on my screen is burning my eyes and i played things reaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaally close to the vest today owing to some brilliant shakeouts and trade throughs. it's monday morning. i was tired. my bad.
 
Yes Babak, 90% down on 3-10 followed by 90% up on 3-17. This back to back has been often followed by an intermediate term rally, and if many other factors present , which are not now, a new bull.

However, there was a 90% down day on 3-24. I

3 Mondays in a row with alternating and diametrically opposite results. Interesting times.
 
5-19-03

NYSE
Point down: 88.8%
Volume down: 89.44%

SP-500

Points down: 99.08%
Volume down: 96.46%

The SP-500 had a severe distribution day. Days like this were occurring last year during the July meltdown.
 
I believe a series of 90% up days tends to be more significant than a series of 90% down days. I think the general rule of thumb is something like double 90% up happening within three months signals change in trend.
 
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