Lowest Reasonable Target For SPY Pull-back

[noddyboy]

Quote from shortie:

SPY is dropping like a rock: -0.01% already! still 4.5 hrs to trade today

I don't believe you are short. You couldn't answer how to play this turnaround. I think you are long and just want to draw attention. How else can you stay so positive throughout all this?

 

[shortie]

Quote from noddyboy:

what is the best way for me to trade your view - at some point I might reverse longs.

go short now, no stops. make sure you can stomach the drawdown if it happens. make sure you are right about the target.

 

[shortie]

Max Pain is 117, this is the first target in the poll. but -3.5% seems too far to be reached by expr.

Does anybody have numbers how often max pain actually works?

 

[shortie]

119.80, max pain is not unreachable any more

 

[shortie]

"The SEC sued Goldman Sachs today, accusing the company and one of its vice presidents of defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product tied to subprime mortgages. "


is this the tip of the iceberg? are they are keeping the real news for Mon?

 

[efficiency]

$118.35 is the Chandelier stop.

$115.24 is the 20 day low and probable trend change.

$104.58, look out below.

April 15th 20 day average true range was $1.18. Lowest since February 2007. Three+ years. Third of a decade.

Is a narrow range what a trader wants?

Three of the last five days, the true range was below of buck. Out of character. Precedes both expiration and a catalyst (Goldman Sachs et al)

 

[shortie]

a single GS news ~ 1.7% drop in SPY. so many more financial institutions out there, so many more potential fraud charges...

once SEC starts doing its job, SPY may quickly drop to 90.

 

[RCG Trader]

Some targets.

Minor Top-115.14
Minor Bottom-104.58
M2-117.73
Channel intersections-116.54,110.11

The minor tops and bottoms are static.
The rest of the targets are dynamic.

 

[shortie]

The bears can't get the ball rolling. show me at least two red days in a row!

there is no really bad news. GS has been shrugged as limited to GS. The ash is going away. Greece has been bailed out (more or less).

Several big companies with surprisingly bad earnings could do the trick but so far the earnings have been quite good.

 

[shortie]

Found this on stockcharts. this dude has a list of unfilled gaps for SPY. Gaps above 104 are listed:
117.0 - 117.1
112.18 - 112.64
111.43 - 111.54
110.29 - 110.71
107.6 - 107.98
105.46 - 105.67

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID2393449&cmd=show[s123237122]&disp=O