Lower Probability Trades

A

antincedo

Ok, someone please elaborate on the details as to why these scenarios may produce less than favorable results




Breakout is against the direction of the previous days close

Trading a breakout against the current trend

Breakout withing area of many other S/R levels (this one seems obvious)



word....
 
Quote from antincedo:



Trading a breakout against the current trend
More...


I'm a little confused there. In fact, i'm somewhat confused w/ your entire post. Care to clarify ?
 
well what im trying to do is define lower from high probability trades so that i can manage my position size better.

breakout against current trend meaning, the trend of the day is up but theres a break of consolidation to the downside... would this be a lower probability break as where i should decrease my entry size?

how do i really go about figuring out the probability of any given scenario (be it low or high)
 
Quote from antincedo:

how do i really go about figuring out the probability of any given scenario (be it low or high)
More...

Easy. Back test and forward test.
 
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