Low risk way to make a 66% return (unleveraged) in 2012

[RCG Trader]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Purely from a trading standpoint, i dont think it matters who he picks as his VP, hell if both Biden and Palin were good for a 10 point jump on intrade for their respective parties, its pretty muxch proof he could pick just about anyone, and once the news cycle takes over and all they are talking about is the VP, it will be good for a 10 point bounce on intrade, at which point you can go long, and watch it slowly revert back to wherer it was trading at before.

So buy the rumor and sell the news?

Okay, that is solid.

 

[RCG Trader]

Quote from JamesL:

No, the guy's name is McDonnell.

McDonald is a clown offering fries with that.

Okay, maybe is was a slip.

 

[JamesL]

Quote from RCG Trader:

Okay, maybe is was a slip.

Yeah, figured is was a clown slight thing.

BTW, madcow is wrong - Romney will not be upstaged by an equal or better coiffed running mate. He needs someone who looks like a number 2, like a Christie, but he (Christie) ain't gonna be it. He also needs someone with foreign policy experience - someone who can see Cuba from his/her house is not going to cut it this time.

 

[GTS]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Even if Obama goes to 65, you will still have an opportunity to get him at 60, or 55 at some point after the VP pick, or the next time there is some world crisis, or dip in the markets. The only way i think he gets to 70+, would be if Romney, or Santorum is caught in some kind of sex scandal from their past after they were nominated, or something like that, and I think due to the fact that they are both hard core bible thumpers, we all know that isnt going to happen.

Thus I agree with you, you will most likely be able to get 50 again, but i know FOR SURE you could easily get 55-60 again, Maverick was correct about this, and i think the timing to place the trade is right after the VP pick.

Since it seems you can short on Intrade you should short sell "Obama To Win" at any price above 60 and buy to cover on the dip that will come...guaranteed profit without any election result risk?

 

[Max E.]

Why tie up money for 5-6 months on a trade thats only going to be worth 5 points if im correct, potentially could be worth zero(also if im correct), and has an outside chance of blowing up?

I bookmarked this thread, and we will come back to it, and see if you can get 60 or lower right after the VP pick.

Quote from GTS:

Since it seems you can short on Intrade you should short sell "Obama To Win" at any price above 60 and buy to cover on the dip that will come...guaranteed profit without any election result risk?

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Max E. Pad:

Even if Obama goes to 65, you will still have an opportunity to get him at 60, or 55 at some point after the VP pick, or the next time there is some world crisis, or dip in the markets. The only way i think he gets to 70+, would be if Romney, or Santorum is caught in some kind of sex scandal from their past after they were nominated, or something like that, and I think due to the fact that they are both hard core bible thumpers, we all know that isnt going to happen.

Thus I agree with you, you will most likely be able to get 50 again, but i know FOR SURE you could easily get 55-60 again, Maverick was correct about this, and i think the timing to place the trade is right after the VP pick.

+1.This and your foreign policy views are spot on

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Lucrum:

And why would we buy based on your opinion?

I'll bump the thread when it hits 55

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

I'll bump the thread when it hits 55

Ok but

1) that wasn't the question you avoided answering
2) do you even have an intrade account?

 

[AK Forty Seven]

Quote from Lucrum:

Ok but

1) that wasn't the question you avoided answering
2) do you even have an intrade account?

1.I don't have to trade to make political predictions.I do follow presidential polls including Intrade and post about them on ET.I'm sure you have seen a few of them

2.Yes I have an Intrade account since 2008 .Currently no bets but I will bet on Obama in the future,no need tieing up capital this far out

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from AK Forty Seven:

1.I don't have to trade to make political predictions.

Of course not, but you were suggesting a "trade" as much a prediction.

I do follow presidential polls including Intrade and post about them on ET.I'm sure you have seen a few of them

Far too many of them if you ask me, but then you didn't ask me.

2.Yes I have an Intrade account since 2008 .Currently no bets but I will bet on Obama in the future,no need tieing up capital this far out

Keeping your powder dry so to speak. Thumbs up.