Low risk way to make a 66% return (unleveraged) in 2012

Quote from Ghost of Cutten:

A bet on Obama will get 40 units profit for every 60 units risked. Return is profit/capital employed. Since 60 units is the maximum you can lose on an Obama bet at the moment, you only need to put up 60 units not 100. And 40/60 is around 66%.
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I've never traded binary options before so I just gave the numbers a quick glance. I stand corrected.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

But you said you were a highly successful speculator. I just thought surely you could earn a return on your money that is greater then what you will lose on the spread moving against you over the next 7 months. Do you understand what I'm saying? Let me walk you through this. Say Obama is trading at 60 right now and let's say that between now and Nov he actually does move higher like you suggest to say 70. That means all you have to do is earn a 15% return between now and Nov to offset the loss in the spread going up. Are you telling me that you can't earn 15% on unleveraged money between now and then? That is my point. Because if you can, then I would tell you to keep trading or investing with that same money and then the night before the election, lay your bet. You might even make more then 15% between now and then and maybe, just maybe, the spread may trade down to 52 or 55. Either way, it's stupid to forgo that opportunity cost and lock up your capital that long because of "fear" that you may have to pay up a few percent. That's all that I'm saying.
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Mav, your posts are more reliable than the VIX. The longer they are, the greater the sign of a dead market.
 
Quote from Maverick74:

Wrong. The benefit of waiting is one, not having to raise 50 to 100 million dollars to win a primary. And two, not giving the democrats a chance to do research and dig up dirt on you. And three, not having to have the other 4 guys beat the shit out of you during the next 25 debates. It's a very smart move. But it's a gamble obviously because your only play is of no one gets enough delegates. But "if" that happens, mark my words, that will change everything. Because one of those stronger guys will be able to literally walk in the convention and walk away with the nomination without spending a dollar or getting attacked in the debates.
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Valid point on the money spending, many overlook that aspect.


c
 
I question your thought process, I guess 'question' is not the right word, Mr. Maverick. On the point of odds now versus the odds in October or November. Would not the simple fact that we have more information, from either side, lower the reward for the same risk?



c
 
Cutten, did you make the same bet against Bill Clinton in the summer of 1992 when the only way he could get on TV was with MTV?
 
How about a side bet on whether cutten is: A U.S. Citizen

I've found politics and wagers can be a volatile mix, especially if you aren't a "local" where things are going on.

At any rate if you want to be really depressed as someone with a "libertarian" bent, watch what is going on in the republican nomination process. A victory for the party in November will be a hollow one, and the nation will continue to unwind.
 
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