Low Risk/High Reward (60%+ per Year) Calendar Spread

[cohenmichaela]

Quote from hlpsg:


Firstly, to hedge with the underlying, you need to have a strategy for mitigating whipsaws. That, IMHO, is going to be your #1 problem.

I agree. You should concentrate on your risk and not your "drivers". Gamma exposure is the risk, just like in all calendars. This strategy does nothing to address this risk and hence I find the return claims not credible.

As hlpsg stated, just saying your going to trade deltas doesn't mean you will be profitable at it. Gamma scalping in itself is an art form that is difficult to accomplish success with. Saying you're going to do it to manage your risk doesn't sound like a viable strategy to me. I wish you luck...

 

[cdcaveman]

Quote from jones247:

I believe the volatility crush after earnings sometimes provide an ideal circumstance for entering the calendar spread. This would increase the vega probability in your favor. Of course, one may average-in on calendar spreads if the IV continues to go lower. Dan Sheridan, one of the most renown experts on options is a BIG proponent of "guerrilla" calendar spreads, where the expiration on the front month is about 30 days away. With such a strategy, the IV is not as crucial. It's the Theta and minimal change in the price of the underlyer that's most important. He claims that a trader can generate as much as 100% annualized return on spreads. I believe that's 100% ROI, not 100% ROA!

Walt

Dan Sheraton... NO DEAL i'm sure you can get a better perspective and a deeper dimension on looking at these types of strategies.. but to me this is a terrible long vol strategy.. the gamma risk creates a margin variation in the strategy.. meaning you might be required to buy or sell alot of stock to hedge the front month... how much?

exception: earnings/events seems the most intuitive thing to trade time vega around.. earnings comes 4 times a year.. buy earnings months sell front months.. model it around not having to gamma hedge... strangle swaps on the term structure curve such that your finding a sweet spot between collapsing prices in the front month and a good hold on prices in the earnings month.