Lottery Ticket Style Investing/Trading

[JamesAndr]

The lottery is always all luck and there is also no certainty that it is honest. They are very often falsified and people just spend their money without being able to win. Once I thought of trying to play the lottery, but changed my mind in time and saved my money. I believe that it is better to place bets in a proven casino, where the chance of winning is much higher and thanks to skills, you can increase this chance. For about a year now I've been betting on africacasinos.co.za/ and my share of wins is significantly higher than my share of losses. In addition due to high coefficients, I have a high and stable profit

 

[easymon1]

The idea of collecting lottery tickets the potential loss could be x but the payoff could be 20x 50x 100x or even 1000x.

David White specifically aims to do this very thing, to take well considered positions that stand to profit in outsized proportion.
It may be of interest to look in on a couple of the youtubes from weeks and months gone by to guage for yourself how his reco's vs performance line up with the process you envision.
Given that 'pregnant timing' enters into the equation, a particular day's show may or may not address this technique, which is nonetheless a special interest of David's.
Not a problem, call him up.
David airs an informative show and invites caller questions and comments.

below is a show from weeks ago picked at random to give an idea of what it is.

2PM EST to catch David White, LIVE, as he hosts The Power Trading Hour.

 

[ironchef]

The equivalent to a lottery ticket in the options world is going long OTM puts or long volatility. Those two strategies by themselves are generally unprofitable strategies (caveat: buying calendars get you long vol and is a profitable strategy, but calendars are the option equivalent of pouring molasses). The problem is the death by 1000 cuts waiting for vol expansion / lottery ticket to pay off. However, if you can find a way to lower your cost basis while you are waiting for the lottery ticket to pay off, then you have the basis for a profitable trading strategy.

Without the ability to somehow predict roughly when the black swan is going to hit, death by 1000 cuts make it not that profitable.

I ran a backtest, simulation of regularly buying SPY OTM put options from 1993 to 2019. Tried a range of OTM & DOTM strikes, had two very profitable years: 2003 and 2008-9 but the 23 years of losses ate up most of the profits. I would make a huge killing if I only bought puts in 2003 and 2008-9.