Lost half this year's profits bottomfishing... lessons learned

I got the cheetah analogy the other way around and I believe it was Mark Weinstein who used it. Mark also claimed pretty much close to having a 100 % win rate.

And he attributed that to simply waiting until everything was perfect before entering.

Just like the superior cheetah who still would stalk his prey and wait until the moment were just right before attacking.
 
hafez50 said:
Although it must be said overall scaling in winners much much harder on the short side than the long side as short trends are probably 1/3 the time frame of long trends .
More...


This is a very good point but i noticed the shorts happens faster and smoother than the long with more whipsaw, the key is not to stop after hitting so many losing (signals)
 
These 3x etf’s are different animals . The erosion is brutal thus a real multi day scaling plan is tough . Plus the way the mkt is in a pretty tight range the past 3-4 weeks ( relatively speaking compared to March ) these are tougher . The 3x funds worked great in March early April as we went straight down to straight up . These work good on long one way type moves . But unfortunately 95% of the time the mkt is in a choppier range were these don’t work well. Bottom line these are 1-2 day trading instruments .
 
hafez50 said:
These 3x etf’s are different animals . The erosion is brutal thus a real multi day scaling plan is tough . Plus the way the mkt is in a pretty tight range the past 3-4 weeks ( relatively speaking compared to March ) these are tougher . The 3x funds worked great in March early April as we went straight down to straight up . These work good on long one way type moves . But unfortunately 95% of the time the mkt is in a choppier range were these don’t work well. Bottom line these are 1-2 day trading instruments .
More...


I learned this the hard way with upro
 
hafez50 said:
These 3x etf’s are different animals . The erosion is brutal thus a real multi day scaling plan is tough . Plus the way the mkt is in a pretty tight range the past 3-4 weeks ( relatively speaking compared to March ) these are tougher . The 3x funds worked great in March early April as we went straight down to straight up . These work good on long one way type moves . But unfortunately 95% of the time the mkt is in a choppier range were these don’t work well. Bottom line these are 1-2 day trading instruments .
More...


Absolutely right.... I prefer to start ultra small size, 20-40 shares SDOW SPXS SOXS SQQQ etc then martingale in for 3 to 5 day round trips, worked great during the selloff but not working recently.

I'm still trying, but now also hedging/arbing pairs like TNA/TZA to scale in to whichever one runs.

But choppy markets make it hit or miss to try multiday swings.

Thanks much re 1-2day timeframe idea, I tend to agree and will test, on larger size. That's the kind of smart insight I genuinely appreciate here!
 
I bought more SDOW TVIX SRTY FAZ SPXS, thousands of dollars after the bell just now.

A big booyah THANKS to Cramer for wisely pointing out 2 markets, eg covid positive tech, bio pharma vs other sectors. That explains why SQQQ SOXS are weaker than other inverses, so I'm scaling out of those.. nice actionable insight.

Strongest inverses today FAZ TZA SRTY, weakness in small caps and financials is a lead indicator for potential bear market selling ahead.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top