Losing Trades Archive

It's my own blend of Morge/Wyckoff with an eye on Adam H. Grimes, who's very grounded when it comes to avoiding being fooled by randomness. I keep an eye on key levels as well (previous day's high/low and few others) to see how we behave when we get there.

What I've boiled down my vision to, for now, is that the bulk of technical analysis is a mere tool without much meaning in itself, to help one visualize what he already thinks he's seeing from pattern recognition, which comes from experience alone. I contend that one doesn't use most technical tools the same way after a couple thousand hours of screen time than without trading experience, because the tool's more like reading glasses: you need to know how to read first. You can tell when you look at Morge's trades, that he's a good price action reader on a naked chart first and foremost, which is why some people can't always understand why he chooses one tool over another: he already knows what he's looking for without it, and it just gives him a confidence boost to nail more precise entries and realistic targets.

Specifically about median lines, the Andrews median (center) line itself carries the most value, as it literally shows you a hint of where the next swing high/low might be if behavior continues in its most recent state. The parallels are nice to the extent that price often reverses there for a while, especially Modified-Schiff which are really just parallel trend lines with a median. So when I use forks, I use MS when I look for continuation and straight Andrews when I look for a multiple-bottom (or top) reversal, but in both cases that's when I'm already stalking a setup.

Back when I just slapped forks on a chart on meaningless pivots expecting the forks to "tell me where price will go", I got nowhere. Obvious in retrospect. Now, as a hint of where to put my entry limit and exit when things start moving in a way I understand "naked", they're actually helpful.

Sorry this ran long. There's so little talk about that stuff, I got excited. :)

no need to apologize, appreciate the post. That makes more sense, i.e., having some kind of framework in mind before applying the tool. What I like about the forks is that they allow for entries that fly in the face of typical TA...

Any other losing trade charts to share?
 
as requested.
triangles are trades, dots are exits.
 

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Shorted @ the red arrow (15/ 5 min - DT)..., trade broke down..., exited breach of same DT (circled on the 5)

Within plan - I'd do it again in a heart beat


eta - in this instance DT = double top.., and down trend line LH


RN


upload_2015-4-17_14-0-5.png
 
Shorted @ the red arrow (15/ 5 min - DT)..., trade broke down..., exited breach of same DT (circled on the 5)

Within plan - I'd do it again in a heart beat


eta - in this instance DT = double top.., and down trend line LH


RN


View attachment 151588
cool RN. Interesting that you don't have your stop behind the previous swing high, looks like you play it very close to the vest. Good job keeping the losses small. Seems like the guys who thought double bottom against earlier morning lows were the cause of the spike.
 
Howdy M1

Vast majority of the time - I'm of the mind set - trade is either going to work - or it ain't


This trade - expected to see a down move / with some momo - didn't happen

Did move down w/ momo couple of bars later - but not on this particular trade


btw - longer I hold a loser..., bigger the loss = more work it is to dig out

I'm lazy ;)

RN
 
It's always at best a educated guess, going with the momo letting it run when right and killing it quick when wrong, is pretty much all there is to this game.
 
Any other losing trade charts to share?

My (part-time) backtesting effort yielded a decent loser for you today. (It was a long shot, but within my plan.) As is typical for me, the losing position lasted just a couple of bars.

(Too bad I didn't have a good enough risk-reward anywhere on the way down after that... Ugh. My trading plan's still young though, maybe it'll have something to catch such days in the future.)

q03.png q05.png
 
My (part-time) backtesting effort yielded a decent loser for you today. (It was a long shot, but within my plan.) As is typical for me, the losing position lasted just a couple of bars.

(Too bad I didn't have a good enough risk-reward anywhere on the way down after that... Ugh. My trading plan's still young though, maybe it'll have something to catch such days in the future.)

View attachment 151887 View attachment 151889

First, great chart annotations, make it a pleasure to read, so thanks for that.

Did your plan say that trend was up at the moment of your long entry? Or does the short term trend not factor into your thinking? If you don't mind me asking.
 
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