Losing money consistently

trader198 said:
Norammly your winning probability is 33.33% (you win, you lose, you win/lose nothing). actually because of commission, your winning probaility will be less than 33.33%. if you trade based on expecation of the market is purely radom.
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:confused:

i wish i had a 33% win rate :(
 
tiddlywinks said:
You geniuses just don't get that using Soros or Buffet as your yardstick is not pertinent to you, your trading, or even your arguments.

Soros is worth 23 Billion.
A norm of 2% of net worth for any single investment is 460 million.
Or maybe you'd prefer 2% of LIQUID net worth which would be less. No matter.

If Soros LOST 100% (meaning an exit value of 0) of the funds (using 2% of net worth calc) in 17 consecutive investments his net worth would be in the range of 15.1 and 16.6 BILLION, dependent on whether you recalculate 2% after each loss or not.
This would have minimal to no impact on his ability to carry on as normal going forward.

At this point in time, those numbers are not pertinent to you, your trading, or your arguments. And while you may try to mirror for percentage returns, perhaps even successfully, the nominal values involved preclude mirroring the effects. 17 consecutive losers in a row suggests something is amiss with the system or the implementation. Sorry.
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so we've gone from 11 losers (OP post) to 2/3 losers (dp post) and now are at (Soros ) 17 losers in a row! :D

Soros has a low batting average. In contrast, Buffett has a very high one. Both are at the top of the game. Tells you it doesn't matter if you have a low or high win rate...all to do with edge i.e. positive expectation.

To the OP, it doesn't matter about your 11 losers in a row, what matters is that you have positive expectation. Do you have this i.e. an edge?
 
"I was a boxer-counterpuncher....in and out, bob and weave...i didn't take wild swings...I never put myself into a position where i could be knocked out. It was a safe, unspectacular approach...for 200 days a year, i'd end up with reasonably small losses netted out with similar sized gains. Lose $5k here, make $6k there, round after round, 20, 30, 40 times a day. But I'd win the other 50 trading days by clear cut unanimous decisions. Smack the bonds for 75k, hit a stock for $100k, nail a couple of options for $125k, pound the s&ps for $150k. Over time it made me a big winner, to the tune of $5 million a year."

- Marty Schwartz, Pit Bull, Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader

Basically this guy, possibly the best day trader ever, breaks even every day of the week, but one, on which day he makes on average, $100k.
 
Visaria said:
To the OP, it doesn't matter about your 11 losers in a row, what matters is that you have positive expectation. Do you have this i.e. an edge?
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Yes. The trend is my edge. I need to set TP. I sure made some nice gain by not have TP in the beginning, but it's not working anymore and I lost all of my 14% gain since starting in march. I think it is true that the bigger your TP compared to your SL the bigger your losing rate. I have to look at my trade history and see how I would of done with a RR of 1:1, etc...
 
Have a profit target for say half your position and the other half you can try and run as much as possible, move protective stops to protect open profits. Can be very discretionary as to how you do move stops up as is profit target.
 
zbojnik said:
Yes. The trend is my edge. I need to set TP. I sure made some nice gain by not have TP in the beginning, but it's not working anymore and I lost all of my 14% gain since starting in march. I think it is true that the bigger your TP compared to your SL the bigger your losing rate. I have to look at my trade history and see how I would of done with a RR of 1:1, etc...
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The trend is not an "edge". Unless and until you've tested all of this, you by definition have no edge, much less a trading plan. Trading according to what seems like a good idea at the time is not a recipe for success.
 
zbojnik said:
What's an EDGE?
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Your edge begins with the knowledge you gain through your research and testing that a particular market behavior offers a level of predictability that provides a consistently profitable outcome over time. Without it, one is just "playing" the market in order to have something to talk about on message boards. To get it, you have to know exactly what you're looking for and what to do with it once you've found it.

Or you can marry Lloyd Blankfein's daughter.
 
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