Losing days

murray t turtle said:
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Good question ;with a max draw Down of 18%, sounds logical.....:D
More...

The 18% was not a Max, but the largest in the backtest.
Future drawdowns could be larger. I would say 25 or 30% would be largest i might see over a full trading career (50 years) if i ran my current system for that long.

As for winning days, i don't want to risk revealing anything related to my edge in any way, which posting winning days might risk doing, but i might do monthly or quarterly PnL in 2018, with both losing and winning PnL posted.
 
Lost -1938GBP today, -2539 USD

Still in drawdown

So far I have had 42 losing days this year

-5530
-3130
-756
-4379
-265
-2732
-4187

-2058
-4974
-103

-2807
-2766
-3243
-4107
-3778

-5209

-3513

-8699
-4668

-4920
-1842
-1988
-3402

-7001

-3063

-3710
-1787
-5353
-3560
-2187

-8155
-6249
-2959

-2959
-1464
-4683

-2186

-4729
-3031

-4004
-1261
-1938
 
Millionaire said:
...
As for winning days, i don't want to risk revealing anything related to my edge in any way, which posting winning days might risk doing, but i might do monthly or quarterly PnL in 2018, with both losing and winning PnL posted.
More...

Oh, this should be rich. Especially since you mentioned earlier that you "wanted to post only your losing days so you could get a mental handle on losing.". This in a very interesting journal. Hey, no worries. If you post your winning days in the same format, I don't think you'd have to worry about "revealing your winning edge." Seriously.



"
-5530
-3130
-756
-4379
-265
-2732
-4187

-2058
-4974
-103

-2807
-2766
-3243
-4107
-3778

-5209

-3513

-8699
-4668

-4920
-1842
-1988
-3402

-7001

-3063

-3710
-1787
-5353
-3560
-2187

-8155
-6249
-2959

-2959
-1464
-4683

-2186

-4729
-3031

-4004
-1261
-1938"

No edge can be gleaned from your losers, so no edge could be gained from your winners. Try a 30-YO video game. At least losers there are not permanent...

 
Millionaire said:
So i could be near the end of this draw down, or i could suffer for another 5+ months and this could be longest drawdown on record.
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Exactly. Max historical drawdown is a useless stat. Markets have no memory, and don't care about your trading account. Every day is a new day.
 
truetype said:
Exactly. Max historical drawdown is a useless stat. Markets have no memory, and don't care about your trading account. Every day is a new day.
More...

Actually it is not completely useless.

You can factor in the previous largest drawdown into your bet sizing rules. You can control how you much you lose during bad drawdowns. You can bet 5% of your capital on the next trade or you can bet 0.1% on the next trade, or anything inbetween. Now if your trading is in record drawdown territory you probably don't want to be betting anything close to 5%. I would be betting 0.5% or less.

What you cant do is control the length of the drawdown. If it lasts for 2 years it lasts 2 years. What most people do is switch systems well before that point, typically we jump to a new system that is making new equity highs.. this gives us a feel good feeling compared to the depressing feeling of trading a system that was in a deep drawdown. Typically what happens is the old abandoned system becomes profitable again while the new system starts drawing down soon after we begin trading with it.
 
Last edited:
Good journal....I understand why u r doing it...aside from coping with the drawdown, it's good to see u can deal with all the negative comments on here with reasoned responses rather than emotional outbursts. Kudos.
 
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