Losing days

[murray t turtle]

What I don't understand is that all your losses seem to vary in % relation to your trading capital, I always commit very similar % of risk.

I sense that the Achilles Heel here is variance in your sizing, whenever you commit 10 lots it could win as well as lose, likewise whenever you commit 30 lots, so why bother altering size? If it's higher risk setup I'd just leave it & wait for a better setup.

%%
Good point on your last line.
With a low hit rate ,JSS [win rate] like the early turtles, took large % gains with low hit rate.OK

But with a better than average hit rate, cutting back is wise. Note there is more than one right answer on this.Usually when i miss , the trend has changed, so i cut back size or take a break depending. Another good thing about cutting back on size; ego does not like it , LOL.Good word........................................................................... One of LBJ's 10 commandments of trading is ''3 misses in a row + take a big break'' ,useful with HI hit rate %; not so useful if a system /plan has low % win rate[ hit rate]

 

[Jdesey]

I follow that rule as well,,, 3 loses in a row and I am done for the day... that happened on Wed and I posted a small 3 point loss ( I trade ES, that's $150 per CT)....

Losing days are just a part of it. I used to have these huge losing days because I traded too much and my stops were too wide. That destroyed me. I have much better risk management now.

 

[Gotcha]

I follow that rule as well,,, 3 loses in a row and I am done for the day... that happened on Wed and I posted a small 3 point loss ( I trade ES, that's $150 per CT)....

Losing days are just a part of it. I used to have these huge losing days because I traded too much and my stops were too wide. That destroyed me. I have much better risk management now.

I thought you used 2 point stops. Now each losing trade is only 1 point? You keep saying that your stop is 2 points and target is 3 points.

Today you even say you got saved from having a 2 point stop-out by not putting on a trade, so your stop would have been 2 points.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-first-30-mins.310579/page-4#post-4475646

It seems like you're all about skipping the first 30 minutes, and next week you're gonna be telling us the amazing trades you took right off the open. Do you see why I say you're all over the place and why I don't believe anything you say????

 

[Jdesey]

I thought you used 2 point stops. Now each losing trade is only 1 point? You keep saying that your stop is 2 points and target is 3 points.

Today you even say you got saved from having a 2 point stop-out by not putting on a trade, so your stop would have been 2 points.

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/es-first-30-mins.310579/page-4#post-4475646

It seems like you're all about skipping the first 30 minutes, and next week you're gonna be telling us the amazing trades you took right off the open. Do you see why I say you're all over the place and why I don't believe anything you say????

Gotcha. Slow down. I had a 3 point winner as my first trade on Wednesday. Then lost precisely 6 points on the next 3 trades, three trades that I Had two point loss attached to them automatically. Net was -3 and done fir the day.

And I did miss a two point loser today by following the no trade first 30 mins strategy. The trade would've been a short at the exact opening bell and I would've been stopped out very quickly. What am I saying it's not making sense

 

[Gotcha]

Gotcha. Slow down. I had a 3 point winner as my first trade on Wednesday. Then lost precisely 6 points on the next 3 trades, three trades that I Had two point loss attached to them automatically. Net was -3 and done fir the day.

I see. The way I first read it was to assume you started the day with 3 losses in a row and hence was expecting -6. Good to see you're being consistent.

 

[Jdesey]

I see. The way I first read it was to assume you started the day with 3 losses in a row and hence was expecting -6. Good to see you're being consistent.

No problem. One thing I'm very consistent with is that two point loss. I never ever ever move it wider. I will move it to a negative one or a breakeven as I'm getting into a profit zone. That accounts for my breakeven's. Don't Talk much about breakeven trades, 20% of mine end up at zero. I will move my profit target if things are going well and volume is holding up. I pulled two 5 point trades this week. But those are now so rare. Sometimes I have to pull down the profit target if things are fading out. I got no problem taking one or two point Profit instead holding out fir three point target that just doesn't make it. That very thing happened today where I took a one and a half point profit on a trade that eventually I would've stopped out on had I stayed too long.

 

[Millionaire]

I always assumed that if you are losing several thousand on the losing days, then you're making this much or more on the winning days. You seem to have more days where you don't post a loss, hence you should have more winning days, but if the days you don't post you're not actually making money, then what does your equity curve look like?

I get at least one entry signal on approx 100 days per year, that is around 40% of trading days. So 150 days where no entry signal is generated.
That means sometimes i can go 5 or even 10 days in a row and not get a signal.

 

[VincentvanG]

The point of this journal is to help focus on the losing days, winning days are easy to deal with.

My trading system, if followed correctly, gives me on average 48 losing days a year.

I day trade, so these are closed out losses at the end of the day.

I do not get signals to trade every day.

I have had 19 Losing days so far in 2017, up to the middle of May:

-5530
-3130
-756
-4379
-265
-2732
-4187

-2058
-4974
-103

-2807
-2766
-3243
-4107
-3778

-5209

-3513

-8699
-4668

All the above losses are in GBP so add 25% to each loss to convert to USD.

I will continue to update this journal after each losing day.

The latest losing streak is 2 days long (-8699 and -4668), this streak is still ongoing.

I like controlled losses where I know what my losses will be. If you have no idea what your losses will be then it is out of control losses. Uncontrolled losses can blow up your account.

 

[RRY16]

Gotcha. Slow down. I had a 3 point winner as my first trade on Wednesday. Then lost precisely 6 points on the next 3 trades, three trades that I Had two point loss attached to them automatically. Net was -3 and done fir the day.

And I did miss a two point loser today by following the no trade first 30 mins strategy. The trade would've been a short at the exact opening bell and I would've been stopped out very quickly. What am I saying it's not making sense

Wrong, if shorted on the opening you would have been in the money close to 4 handles within 15 min and break even after 30min so cut the crap.

 

[Jdesey]

Wrong, if shorted on the opening you would have been in the money close to 4 handles within 15 min and break even after 30min so cut the crap.

Wow you're seriously going to tell me what I would have or not have done! Pretty assumptive.
I'm telling you trading my method I would've taken a two point loss on that opening down trade. Peace out buddy