Risk:reward.
If I lower risk too much, then I get pennies even if I win.
Risk mitigation is great and all, but at some point I must admit... That if I guessed wrong, I lose!!! That's the nature of the game.
Looong weekend...
- Thread starter kmiklas
- Start date
Risk:reward.
If I lower risk too much, then I get pennies even if I win.
Risk mitigation is great and all, but at some point I must admit... That if I guessed wrong, I lose!!! That's the nature of the game.
You're maddening at times. Why did you not just peel away some of your CL at 33.99? I'm seeing a current print of 35.05 on Oct CL. Oy!
I was too inexperienced to do that at the time. I was waiting for market to open knowing that it could possibly gap 5+ points down and that if it's anywhere near 31 or over, I'll just sell it all so that it doesn't have time to go down.
But you see my prediction was actually correct. The thing I did wrong was expose myself to too much risk.
K, well, fare thee well with your new MES long and CL long position.
I'll hopefully see a big jump in CL on Thursday from the OPEC meeting.
I think it will still go up even after that, so I'm not sure when to sell it honestly.
I think trying to predict short-term highs and lows is impossible. Might as well focus on the bigger picture. And this virus has made for some very obvious bigger pictures.
Yes, but you got into the CL trade as a swing. You have to hang onto it like a swing if you have conviction about market movement! And you just now did the same things with MES. Ya gotta' hold onto your ankles and prepare for either a blast-off, or a shitshow. Depending on your angle.
Remember...Without a hedge, swinging a future has only one edge...Time. That's all you got.
What would be an example of a hedge I could have used in this situation?
There are a shitload of them. One simple example would be an intra-commodity spread. There could also be an inter-commodity spread.
And there are many many others regarding options, but I know nothing about options, so can't help you there. Try @bone or @PoopyDeek for hedging possibilities.
You're just saying offset potential losses with gains. Offset potential gains with losses.
Instead of beating around the bush, why not just take my loss if I was wrong? My hedge was that I didn't risk more than I could afford to lose in the first place.
Those same hedges would cap my gains if I was correct.
Welp, if hedging didn't work, nobody would do it. So there we are.