Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

It's possible we've bottomed out. First report of negative effects of high loonie in today's Globe; headline: "Rising dollar gnaws at resource sector; firestry, mining firms start to take financial hists already seen by manufacturers". It may only be the first swallow, but we have seen a 50-pip rise in the last 24 hours. Also my GBPCAD short has gone nearly 100 pips the wrong way No need to panic yet, but I'm looking at maybe taking the loss and going long on EURGBP, which seems to be recovering from close to a 3-month support level. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to be recovering as well (so USD is perversely going down against all the majors while it starts to come back against the loonie.)

I think I'll wait till 1.08 and a few strong up days before I believe in the uptrend; once it gets rolling, we could be back to 1.12-1.13 in a few weeks.
 
Quote from gspaulsson:

It's possible we've bottomed out. First report of negative effects of high loonie in today's Globe; headline: "Rising dollar gnaws at resource sector; firestry, mining firms start to take financial hists already seen by manufacturers". It may only be the first swallow, but we have seen a 50-pip rise in the last 24 hours. Also my GBPCAD short has gone nearly 100 pips the wrong way No need to panic yet, but I'm looking at maybe taking the loss and going long on EURGBP, which seems to be recovering from close to a 3-month support level. Both EURUSD and GBPUSD seem to be recovering as well (so USD is perversely going down against all the majors while it starts to come back against the loonie.)

I think I'll wait till 1.08 and a few strong up days before I believe in the uptrend; once it gets rolling, we could be back to 1.12-1.13 in a few weeks.
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Between the FED's comments on Bonds, The Dow Dropping a 100 points, and ISM Non-Manufacturing Index going beyond expectations. These things might be signalling the time for the USD to turn around.


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks were down sharply on Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by about 100 points, after upbeat comments on the economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and better-than-expected service-sector data reduced hopes that the Fed would cut interest rates.


Hey, with all this canadian and european money comming into the US via vacationionors, it might be a good time to buy Leisure Stocks and Mutual Funds. Whatcha think?:D
 
Ha ha re the tourist trade. Good one. Personally, I'm biding my time to buy lumber stocks. Figure next Feb after they come out with dismal annual reports and the US housing market is maybe bottoming out. There's a stock I'm eyeing that was worth $26 last spring, $7 now, and I expect by 2/08 you'll be able to pick it up for $4 if not $2. Of course, that's in loonies, which by then will be worth $3.00 in real money.

There is a pretty good rule of thumb: by the time you read about a trend in the Globe, it's over.
 
Looks like USD/CAD is finally turning around before the trade balances reports come out.

Hmm. I wonder how much it will jump if the trade balance reports are possitive..:D
 
Not sure, bannister. Yesterday we got the first shots across the bow from the trade minister how the Loonie is beginning to seriously curb manufacturers profit.

If more jawboning is to come, expect a bottom to form.
 
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