Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

Based upon this current weekly Canadian futures chart, I have remained long the CD futures (short US). We are at a point on the daily where it is critical that we continue to move upwards or the potential of a bearish divergence exists. I will monitor closely. Current unrealized profits are around 460 pips per contract. Staying long for now. :)
 

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absolutely agree with Ivanovich on patience. I reviewed 1 year's worth of trading records and found that less than 1% of my trades would not have made money if I'd hung on long enough. Sometimes that was 6 weeks and I'd only make 1%, but that's still a respectable roi and the 6-week holds are rare. So now I do two things: use minimum leverage, so I can ride it out, and diversify - so I'm not killed by that 1% that goes offside. Last year I got burned by GBPCHF, which I shorted at 2.27, 1-year high, and it promptly zoomed to 2.40+ and has stayed there ever since. But if that's just one position out of 7 or 8, then it's not a disaster.

I got back in at .0971, 32 pips above a 30-year low and conditions a year ago (when we hit .0939) were much better for the loonie. Why exactly the whole world has gone mad for loonies now is hard to explain.

Today I'm back up to even on the month, so I'm glad I didn't panic yesterday when I was -3%. Reduced my exposure to CAD by shorting a pile of EURCAD at 4960, made a quick 29 pips in 20 minutes. Now that's more like it.

I'm short USDJPY at 120.20: it's now at 120.70, which IMHO is a ridiculous price. But it could head up to 122 or 123 before the balloon runs out of lift, so I'm just hanging in and resisting the temptation to short some more.

Patience. Also discipline.
 
Has anyone heard of a company called World Investment Group, A.K.A....forexbankonline, ITGforex, any info pro or con, would be helpful!

Thanks
Leroy
 
Quote from gspaulsson:

absolutely agree with Ivanovich on patience. I reviewed 1 year's worth of trading records and found that less than 1% of my trades would not have made money if I'd hung on long enough. Sometimes that was 6 weeks and I'd only make 1%, but that's still a respectable roi and the 6-week holds are rare. So now I do two things: use minimum leverage, so I can ride it out, and diversify - so I'm not killed by that 1% that goes offside. Last year I got burned by GBPCHF, which I shorted at 2.27, 1-year high, and it promptly zoomed to 2.40+ and has stayed there ever since. But if that's just one position out of 7 or 8, then it's not a disaster.

I got back in at .0971, 32 pips above a 30-year low and conditions a year ago (when we hit .0939) were much better for the loonie. Why exactly the whole world has gone mad for loonies now is hard to explain.

Today I'm back up to even on the month, so I'm glad I didn't panic yesterday when I was -3%. Reduced my exposure to CAD by shorting a pile of EURCAD at 4960, made a quick 29 pips in 20 minutes. Now that's more like it.

I'm short USDJPY at 120.20: it's now at 120.70, which IMHO is a ridiculous price. But it could head up to 122 or 123 before the balloon runs out of lift, so I'm just hanging in and resisting the temptation to short some more.

Patience. Also discipline.
More...

I ride out a lot of storms myself. You may also want to do as I do and only make trades where you earn interest.
 
Interest is nice, but I prefer a balanced portfolio. At the moment I have a large pile riding on the USDCAD recovery, and I'm ofsetting the risk by shorting USD against other pairs, including AUD (where the interest is with me) and JPY (where it's very much not). I don't mind paying a bit of interest for the sake of risk management and good capital gains.
 
CPI numbers for Canada were better than expected (not that much better) which would suggest that there is still inflation.

But I am not convinced that 0.1% over expectations will push us further into the abyss that is USDCAD.

However on my last long from 0970 and which I added @ 0984
- took profit on 1/2 @ 1054
- stopped out in the money 1/2 @ 1010

looking to go long usdcad again since the Canadian CPI numbers were not that much better and suggest similar economic conditions as the US
 
Right now, I've been doing the following:

Shorting:
usd/try
eur/try
eur/cad
eur/gb
eur/usd
chf/jpy

Long on the following:
usd/cad

I was riding out a pretty fierce storm collecting between my two accounts over $200 in interest a day. But the clouds are starting to break up, and it looks like I'm going to have a nice summer.

And I think I am in love with that Turkish Lira. Man, I have huge capital gains with it, and a very nice payout in interest.
 
I am still hanging in, but considering hedging my big negative exposure to CAD by shorting EURCAD and GBPCAD, both of which have lots of room to fall. Will have to close out other positions to free up the capital, though, and USD appears to be perversely going up against everything except CAD.

Did a little study on oil prices. Taking 1998-99 as a base, an annual growth rate of 17.68% seems to fit the 2001-2003 data best (2000 was an anomaly, maybe related to the dotcom bubble). 17.68% is a hefty rate of increase, more than accounting for the long-term squeeze on supply and increase in demand. It will result in $100 oil in 2009, so in the long term the oil bulls and USDCAD bears have it right. However, that growth rate predicts a median oil price of $60.60 this year - about right , so far, - with a low of $47.61 and a high iof $73. Last year's figures "should" have been %51.49, 40.46 and 62.50, so prices were overblown by around $15 or over 25%. I expect a recession willl actually cause oil to drop to $40 later this year, which would have a disproportionate effect on Canada because oil sands oil is so expensive to produce. The US had also been
stockpiling LNG, which is apparently cheap because it isn't in demand in Europe and Asia. That means lower pipline imports from Canada. So last year's resource price bubble looks set to burst, and USDCAD should benefit. Until the US goes into recession, Bernanke won't touch rates, and neither will Dodge - and then they'll both go together when they go. Not that rates
are a major determinant of USDCAD.

In the short term, the refinery bottleneck should continue to cause a crude glut at the same time as keeping prices at the pump high and bringing that recession closer. With their mortgages and lines of credit hit by falling house prices, their
credit cards mxed out, air fares going up because of the price of refined product and the USD fetching bad rates everywhere, I think this will be a good summer to settle for barbecues in the back yard rather than going anywhere for holidays, putting more downward pressure on crude.

I still think we'll see $40 oil and a $1.20 USD sometime late this year.

Oh, and the combination of a slowing economy and a soaring stock market is a classic recipe for a crash. The 1987 and 1989 crashes were both preceded by a housing slowdown. All that mortgage money has to go somehere: it goes into equities and consumer credit. I think you'll see a lot of defaults later in the year. hitting bank stocks and retailers; energy stocks will be struggling, and it will all trigger a sell-off. My birthday (Oct 24th) is a good traditional day for stock crashes. Maybe I'll buy myself some put options as a present.
 
Quote from ZoneTrooper:


And I think I am in love with that Turkish Lira. Man, I have huge capital gains with it, and a very nice payout in interest.
More...

Be very careful with this. You are playing with fire.
 
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