Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

got rid of half of my position @ 95 ... a surprise of inflationary data out of the US and no forceful up move

prospects looks bleak

plus I risked almost 25 pips to make about 25 pips ... thats not a good game

I am setting up break even stops at 65 for the last half of my position. My target is still high 1100s - low 1200s ... but is that asking for too much?
 
Please note that I have made adjustments to both the static levels (black) and the dynamic River levels (blue) based on the price action over the last 5 weeks. The static levels will be fixed for approximately 4-5 weeks depending on volatility.

You will notice that my new model has changed. My bias is up on this pair, however we need to resolve River at 1.1089. Once this is complete the next directional move may become clearer. I consider this pair neutral at the moment.

Short Strategy (Neutral)

Traders can look to set shorts on a push back down to River at 1.1089. Risk is an hourly close below 1.1071. Target is transition at 1.1247. Exit completely here.


Long Strategy (Neutral)

Traders can look to set longs on an hourly close above 1087. Risk is an hourly close below 1071. Target is River at 1189 where traders can take partial profits, final target is River at 1247. Exit completely here.

usdcad5-2-2007.PNG
 
Quote from bannisterj:

downrivertrader , people like me need the advice of poeple like you otherwise i would be ttrading blind !!

thanks in hope
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LOL - dude...that is not good. IMHO stop trading real money based on peoples advice on forums and start learning how to trade.

Said with the best of intentions.

MK
 
check out the daily chart

just based on candle stick analysis alone, we can build a case that we have reached a bottom. However today's close is critical.

The Bank of Canada statements today seem to imply that another interest rate hike will take more than just rising commodity prices as the reason.

The weakening of the USD seems to have had a real effect on US manufacturing as today's US econ numbers showed surprise figures. This could be early signs of inflation.

Currently other USD currency pairs seem to show signs of USD strength. The ultimate confirmation obviously is the upcoming NonFarm Payrolls numbers, which could surprise as well since manufacturing seems to have been boosted last month.

If this happens we could have temporary USD strength throughout the month of May barring other extreme news.

I would think traders would be taking some profits off of USD short positions in the next few days seeing that weak US economic expectations are tapering off from today's surprise numbers.

And the broken record plays on =)

holding last 1/2 usdcad L for 23.6 fib retracement or 1240 unless something comes up
stops raised to 1085
 

Attachments

Quote from usdoutlaw:

check out the daily chart

just based on candle stick analysis alone, we can build a case that we have reached a bottom. However today's close is critical.
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Hi usdoutlaw,

Just a quick comment about your above statement. What exactly is a days close? Since this is a 24 hour market, a daily bar is different depending on what timezone your charts are set to.

Check out some observations that Lawrence Chan (the creator of Neoticker) makes. In particular the paragraphs on daily bars.

http://newsletter.neoticker.com/?p=137

Food for thought at the least.

I'm patiently waiting for a good pop to get short and ride it down to par
:D No longs for me in this market now, trend is down.

With kind regards,
MK
 
Quote from MidKnight:

Hi usdoutlaw,

Just a quick comment about your above statement. What exactly is a days close? Since this is a 24 hour market, a daily bar is different depending on what timezone your charts are set to.

Check out some observations that Lawrence Chan (the creator of Neoticker) makes. In particular the paragraphs on daily bars.

...........................

Well basically I situate the close as when interest is paid on the spot contracts which for me is 5pm EST US or 10pm GMT

As far as I know all channels and daily pivots seem to be in-line with my charts.

I agree it is all perception to an extent ... but I am pretty sure that the active times for the usdcad are during euro and US hours

I am not looking for 300+ pips ... that would be a bonus for me ... I am looking for good swings

However, with the Bank of Canada implying that they need something more to raise rates I do not see a quick run down to the levels you mention

but I agree any substational up move will be met by tremendous selling pressure maybe somewhere around 300 pips ... I would love to short in the 1400 - 1500s
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Quote from usdoutlaw:

Quote from MidKnight:


but I agree any substational up move will be met by tremendous selling pressure maybe somewhere around 300 pips ... I would love to short in the 1400 - 1500s
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Your in dreamland.... Selling will come in hard at 1300 and 1400 we will get a retest of the low from one of those 2 areas before we get above 1400.... probability wise anyway.

I am still short the @CD which is equivalent to being long usd/cad
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Quote from apex82:

Your in dreamland.... Selling will come in hard at 1300 and 1400 we will get a retest of the low from one of those 2 areas before we get above 1400.... probability wise anyway.

I am still short the @CD which is equivalent to being long usd/cad
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ok ... I repeat I would love to get short @ 1400 - 1500s (doesnt mean its going to happen)

I am still unsure about state of US economy ... so no real opinion yet ... its not like companies are breaking down my door to give me a job heh =) thus I am not sure about the NFP ... the NFP is probably going to set the USD tone for the rest of the month
 
@ 17:15 EST BoC Dodge says the Bank of Canada will not interven to stop the Candian dollar rise.

Well that confirms it.

Doom and gloom.

Closed all my USDCAD long positions.

What a confirmation of the USDCAD sell side
:p
 
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