Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

Quote from Ivanovich:

Based on how oversold this technical picture is, and the fundamental backdrop developing behind the scenes, I would say you are safe at the moment. But averaging down or up is the second worst thing an FX trader can ever do.
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Most of the forex movements tend to occur in London or USA hours. I live in a timezone nearly totally opposite to those. Because of that, I have been leaning towards a method similar to the other poster, quin. I don't have the luxury of being precise and monitoring it precisely. Since you think averaging up/down (scaling-in, whatever one wants to call it) is a bad idea, maybe you can give some advice for how people without the luxury of watching the charts in real-time when they are volatile should proceed.

We are not able to see a consolidation develop and enter with a stop based just beyond that consolidation. The decisions are made before these events occur, and in my case, these events tend to occur when I'm snoring logs.

Any recommendations would be warmly received.

Best regards,
MK
 
I don't know why you guys are mudslinging and without any reasoning backing up your statements.

In anycase the cup and handle formation failed however I got stopped out @ 1230 (I went against my trade plan an put a stop lower than the 38.2 Fib retracement
*see recent charting post 04-26-07 04:50 PM

Plus I was too immersed in the GBPUSD bounce to care about usdcad to get short again (what a bounce off the 4 hour channel support! stupid me exited my gbpusd longs @ 9920 from 9860s and 9870s, and was too scared to buy in again)

Even though we had a lower low this morning after the US GDP, it wasnt that much lower than the previous low (this is probably due to stop slippage)

I would like to see another low near this quasi-double bottom area before I convince myself of a long term buy. Another low would form a reverse crown (or triple bottom) which would indicate a strong bottom formation.

The recent 1-2-3 retracement of the April 25-26 up move presents a good short term buying opportunity (in my opinion)

I have initiated a long USDCAD @ 1156 with a short term target of 1186 (or the original channel resistance *see chart on post from 04-26-07 04:50 PM
stops are placed 15 pips away @ 1140 (if my target is not reached by Monday morning i will close out this position

USDCAD continued testing of hourly channel resistance could be a sign of a bottom formation as well

have a good weekend
 
The market moved down again on Friday, but rebounded somewhat to close at 1160.

I am continuing to stand aside as I do not see the risk/reward being favorable at this time. I do not plan to consider setting shorts on this pair unless we move up to the 1295 River Level. Even at this point will wait for resolution of this level for new direction.

Price closed below the River level of 1295 so long trades are aggressive.



Short Strategy

Traders can look to enter new shorts on an hourly close below 1144. Risk is an hourly close above 1170. Target is 1087. Cover completely here.



Long Strategy (Higher Risk)

Traders can look to set longs on an hourly close above 1189. Risk is an hourly close below 1144. Target is River at 1295. Exit here.



usdcad4-30-2007.PNG
 
where do we see the eventual bottom guys, give or take 110 pips, i have sat patiently for months now and am getting twitchy and feel the bottom must be surely close now !!
 
Ok I am pretty sure you guys are as frustrated as I am with the Upside potential of USDCAD

I am going to make a call ...

from the top at the beginning of FEB to the bottom just now ... 1 fib retracement (38.2%) from the recent bootm

I am loaded

100 pip stop almost 300 pip potential upside

Why am I making the call? Canadian GDP seems to be only bolstered by one thing ... commodity and raw material prices. (If an economy's strength is just based on raw material prices and nothing internal like steady inflationary price increases then we should not see an raise in interest rates by the central banks)

I am pretty sure tomorrow's PPI will show some truth to that.

Tell me if you think I am wrong
 
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