Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

After looking at all "comparables" I have discerned the following for the current uptrend in the USDCAD

USDJPY is a relative strength winner when compared its canadian counterpart

Also metals (gold) and crude are off their relative highs.

" 1949 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/CAD ended higher, around C$1.1736, with CAD selling off vs EUR and JPY as North American stock markets reeled amid renewed concerns about the state of the US economy. Weaker commodity prices also buffeted CAD Tues. (DBC)"


knowing this I am lightening my position around the 117.50 area
 
Mar 14 2007

Ok I am clear out of all my usdcad longs at 1.1775

reason:
Gold is down big (almost $10) but that only realized 25 more pips in my favor

unsure about how the JPY will affect USDCAD and this market. I might try a temporary short if usdcad rise to around 1.1800 (testing if the USDCAD is still range bound)

also I might want to wait for US econ numbers tomorrow. There is a ton of inflationary data tomorrow.
 
Quote from usdoutlaw:

Mar 14 2007

Ok I am clear out of all my usdcad longs at 1.1775

reason:
Gold is down big (almost $10) but that only realized 25 more pips in my favor

unsure about how the JPY will affect USDCAD and this market. I might try a temporary short if usdcad rise to around 1.1800 (testing if the USDCAD is still range bound)

also I might want to wait for US econ numbers tomorrow. There is a ton of inflationary data tomorrow.
More...

imho, you make things too complicated... Gold, jpy, etc.... Why don't you concetrate on USDCAD and only that?

I am still in this trade, and technically, it has very
good chances for a serious mark-up. (I know nothing
about news, gold, jpy, and all the stuff you analyze)

I am really curious... i would like to know what exactly
you saw at around 1.1775 and got out....
 
Quote from KS96:

imho, you make things too complicated... Gold, jpy, etc.... Why don't you concetrate on USDCAD and only that?

I am still in this trade, and technically, it has very
good chances for a serious mark-up. (I know nothing
about news, gold, jpy, and all the stuff you analyze)

I am really curious... i would like to know what exactly
you saw at around 1.1775 and got out....
More...

Well there are a lot of factors that go into pricing the USDCAD ... notice how weak the USD was against other major currencies, yet the dollar was stronger than the CAD. There must be some reason for this.

1.1775 I remember was a mild support level one week ago. However that support broke down and now I am using the 1.1775 price level to guage my exit point (ie support becomes resistance)

Plus in the short term I had already made nearly 100 pip so i was happy with the profit on the trade. Additionally, there is a lot of uncertainty in front of a lot of US inflationary econ data tomorrow and the JPY is definitely moving markets so its hard to guage USD based positions.

I am all about trading the USDCAD relative to current USD sentiment, however the JPY seems to be the major currency that is moving markets, so it has become hard for me to guage USDCAD pricing.

I would caution you to continue to hold your USDCAD long if the price drops below this 1.1750s resistance ... that is unless you have been long since the 1.1500s.

GL & GT
 
The party has been in the EUR/CAD for sometime now.
(actually, my net exposure is in that;
long EUR/USD, long USD/CAD)
I believe that this is what moves CAD lately.
What we see in USD/CAD is probably just a spin-off
of the EUR/CAD moves.

btw, I am trading daily & 30min charts (for entries/exits).
 
That is interesting ... I will have to look at that relationship more closely.

However I should remind you that the US is Canada's largest trading partner (NAFTA). Thus I am more inclined to side with the opposite relationship ... EURCAD tracks the USDCAD.

Plus the EURUSD is up which should suggest (under your relationship) that the USDCAD should be relatively higher that the 1750s.

I trade off 4 hour ~ 1 hour ~ 15 minute
 
Agreed, EUR/CAD follows USD/CAD.

EUR/CAD madness has been going on for quite some time. EUR madness against every cross has been going on.
 
short USDCAD @ 1.1745; stop in 1.1835 area, limit in 1.1560 area

despite the larger upward momentum the past couple of weeks, i believe there might be some leftover selling pressure due to signs of a shorter-term bearish reversal.

as always, i'm covering this with any signs of unusual strength to the upside as the action develops.
 
Just something Interesting to show you guys ... If some of you are taking a position right now ...

There is a consolidation wedge forming on the 4 hour chart. This could mean that a breakout from this wedge could be news driven, since the recent dollar weakness and other external forces have not really affected the pricing of usdcad.

I am planning to short at the top of this wedge. Around the high 1.1770s, if it gets to that point again
 

Attachments

Opened a tentative short in USDCAD.

Price action suggests that the recent move is US dollar based. However I am not 100%.

Short @ 1.1780
Stop @ 1.1799
Target @ 1.1740
Open short orders in the low 1.1800s

This short is to test the temporary ceiling around the 1.1780s. And the wedge formation I depicted in my last post. This short is definitely against the current up trend however, in my opinion, a breakout above 1.1780s was due a while back and hasn't happened.
 
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