Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD
- Thread starter usdoutlaw
- Start date
I agree 1.1750 looks like the point of no return
It is also interesting that you are mentioning crude. I have also been worried about crude prices but it seems to have no affect; probably because the spring season is approaching and heating oil will not be in demand, thus many are discounting the recent high oil prices. (in my opinion) Metal prices are probably more of a factor because the need for metal ores should be subsiding in the US due to declining housing construction.
I believe the employment numbers for both the US and Canada are key for tomorrow's pricing and pricing for weeks to come more than anything else on deck. Reason being metal ore and other raw materials (i.e. lumber) demand is subsiding and crude demand should subside as well in the warmer seasons)
I believe the US will have created more Non Farm Payrolls than expected (because I see more and more people finding jobs in the retail and financial services sector) ... i am not too sure about Canadian jobs but I assume since I am not going to Canada to find a job that their job market is not that strong (tongue in cheek)
So, my feeling is that even if other USD pairs are showing weak dollar, the USDCAD might not waiver from the prevailing uptrend.
Well except for the instance when Canada creates more jobs marginally than the United States or when Canada creates a huge trade surplus with the US.
Mar 09 2007 cont...
thank goodness for my stop out *cheers*
Canadian numbers (in my opinion) look awesome versus their American counterparts plus there was a huge trade surplus change.
but unfortunately it does not seem that pricing would reflect this ... USDCAD only going as low as 117.31 bid.
That is about 20 pips higher than were I started entering this USDCAD trade. Strange, because I would think the USDCAD pricing would atleast drop 100 pip from the number on news events like that.
Still keeping my bias long until I see a solid signal for change in trend.
Looking for good spots to buy USDCAD ... probably will wait one hour while things die down. Maybe my mind will change by then
thank goodness for my stop out *cheers*
Canadian numbers (in my opinion) look awesome versus their American counterparts plus there was a huge trade surplus change.
but unfortunately it does not seem that pricing would reflect this ... USDCAD only going as low as 117.31 bid.
That is about 20 pips higher than were I started entering this USDCAD trade. Strange, because I would think the USDCAD pricing would atleast drop 100 pip from the number on news events like that.
Still keeping my bias long until I see a solid signal for change in trend.
Looking for good spots to buy USDCAD ... probably will wait one hour while things die down. Maybe my mind will change by then
I agree ...
it really seems to depend on wheter the USD gets really weak ... and temporarily dollar looks bullish ... Lehamn says it is looking for short squeezes in the USD.
To me the USDCAD looks to have double bottomed according to recent short term charts... and seems to be flagging big time.
I am mystified right now at why the USDCAD is not making a bigger drop ... Gold is up .. I think Oil is up .. metals are in general up
oh well wait and see
Mar 11 2007
Ok I have been getting long in the teens ... looking for some retracement off of Fridays lows ...
I am looking at moves that take in expectations for Tuesday's US retail sales numbers.
I do not expect anything big on Monday's Canadian labor numbers but am still cautious.
Going back with the overall trend of bullish USDCAD
Ok I have been getting long in the teens ... looking for some retracement off of Fridays lows ...
I am looking at moves that take in expectations for Tuesday's US retail sales numbers.
I do not expect anything big on Monday's Canadian labor numbers but am still cautious.
Going back with the overall trend of bullish USDCAD
mar 12 2007 ...
no more trades in the usdcad until there is more information on this subprime lending bust.
unfortunately this US subprime lending fiasco is not affecting the usdcad currency pair ... however it is making direction and potential and expectations hard to guage.
Maybe when PPI comes out on Mar 15, the usdcad will be easier to guage.
no more trades in the usdcad until there is more information on this subprime lending bust.
unfortunately this US subprime lending fiasco is not affecting the usdcad currency pair ... however it is making direction and potential and expectations hard to guage.
Maybe when PPI comes out on Mar 15, the usdcad will be easier to guage.
Open long USDCAD @ 1.1695
target @ 1.1792
stop @ 1.1670
new stop @ 1.1710
Sorry I did not alert you readers but i was busy trading the JPY contracts.
Seems like we are stuck in a range. Maybe the inflation data for the US coming up this week will break us out.
However estimates have been really close so far so I am not sure.
Technically I must say that it is thin trading and most likely the recent 60 pip up move is probably due to all lot of shorts unwinding. I am guessing there is not much sell interest down below 1.1700 yet.
target @ 1.1792
stop @ 1.1670
new stop @ 1.1710
Sorry I did not alert you readers but i was busy trading the JPY contracts.
Seems like we are stuck in a range. Maybe the inflation data for the US coming up this week will break us out.
However estimates have been really close so far so I am not sure.
Technically I must say that it is thin trading and most likely the recent 60 pip up move is probably due to all lot of shorts unwinding. I am guessing there is not much sell interest down below 1.1700 yet.