Loonie ... the infamous USD/CAD

Well looking back to what I said ... the daily charts hammer candle formation yesterday looks more like a doji formation.

Even it was a hammer the next bar, today's bar broke yesterdays low which leads me to think a long in usdcad is probably not a good idea right now

However looking at the flipside: the Canadian retail sales numbers ex-autos was in-line to a little weaker than expectations which could signal that the rising CPI is affecting consumer spending habits, but wait, it could mean that the Canadian rail strike is having an affect. This is only speculation until we have more consumer pricing and sales data.

Who knows, maybe Canadians are more sensitive to price fluctuations than we are in the United States.
 
bought another one @ 21

three units at prices: 1221; 1224; 1227

I am really looking for a "well its the end of the week, I made money on my shorts and its time to close" rally

heh
 
I'm thinking now might be a good time to start buying and holding for a 100-200 pip profit. If you buy now and then just start averaging every 50 pips I think money will be made...
 
Quote from quin8670:

I'm thinking now might be a good time to start buying and holding for a 100-200 pip profit. If you buy now and then just start averaging every 50 pips I think money will be made...
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I agree but 200 pips might be too hopeful

Plus are you willing to take the risk holding over the weekend?

in anycase if their is a rally we might see the 20 EMA on the daily but thats as far as I think a rally might take the usdcad. CAD econ numbers are relatively stronger than US numbers and a rate hike is more probable for Canada than the US.
 
agreed - 200 pip may be too much but I said 100-200 which I think is possible.

I think we will see around the 18-20 ema touched...This would be the profit taking/get short time. However, profits may be taken earlier.

In regards to holding over the weekend. This isn't a daytrade. This is a swing trade in which I will keep the leverage down a bit. I am prepared to take this averaging down to around the 1.10 level.

This move from 1850 has just been too harsh and I think this swing trade is a solid move.

The only risks I see is severe USD weakness against all currencies. That being said with the USD index hovering around long-term lows I think a rally is strongly possible.
 
Quote from apex82:

Going long usdcad here at 1.224. stop below the lows at 1.215

Profit 1.150 or so basically a 20 or more to 1 risk reward. If stopped out will probably reenter on a reversal bar.
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Still long.. this baby is about to explode to the upside. Just keep your risk small until you catch the big one. Most likely they will drop it below the lows one last time. If this happens get in with a slingshot entry and ride it for a nice gain.

watch in the 1.189 area for the ultimate low to be made and the immediate explosive reversal if new lows are made.
 
apex82, i am a relative newbie, can you explain in easy terms to me what you mean as i am a little confused looking at the figure you quoting there, thanks mate :)
 
That is an unfortunate to get posts like that polluting the thread (moderators?). I was wondering if you would be so kind as to have a discussion about your entry management?

What I'm interested in is finding out how you are doing the scaling in. Are you increasing size of the add on successive adds (i.e. maybe you double up on each successive add)? How far apart are you generally spacing the adds? Do you tend to lighten up some of the adds if it moves a bit in your favor, thus using the adds more as damage control and risk reduction as it wiggles against you?

I understand this is probably mostly 'art' rather than a strict science. I'm just trying to get a feel for how it is done. I've never traded like that, but will probably need to if I am going to swing the FX.

Thanks in advance for your comments.

Kind regards,
MK
 
Quote from bannisterj:

apex82, i am a relative newbie, can you explain in easy terms to me what you mean as i am a little confused looking at the figure you quoting there, thanks mate :)
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Here is the visual... hope this helps.
 

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