Looks like Victor Niederhoffer blew up again

Oh. Oh, Oh, wait a minute, I'm having a brainstorm, or is it a vision? I'm having a vision of the risk to reward relationship. Oh wait, there it is. I can see it clearly now. Oh my God! It's non-linear!
 
It's pretty sad that a guy goes from legit stat-arb to a dime put addiction. That being stated; most of his gains were padding from selling puts in a roaring bull mkt. So how much of his performance was due to stat-arb? I suspect it's very little. Matador was basically an "always in" put writing program. And yeah, my brother was in Matador.
 
Oh. Oh, Oh, wait a minute, I'm having a brainstorm, or is it a vision? I'm having a vision of the risk to reward relationship. Oh wait, there it is. I can see it clearly now. Oh my God! It's non-linear!

Very true but there is a deeper problem than this even. There is something wrong with the basic mathematics of probability. This has been shown in many different ways, but a couple of examples:

there are 100 year floods more often than they should occur and no Virginia it is not due to global warming.

A 22 sigma move in the markets should not have occurred in our lifetimes.

As a consequence, almost all traders bet too much on single trades.
 
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