Some suspect there might be an underrepresented female Gen Z/Millennial push over Roe v. Wade. I know Michael Moore floated this theory and he thought Trump would win the Rust Belt in 2016 so I wouldn't quickly dismiss him as a biased liberal blowhard. Gen Z/Millennials are very difficult to poll since basically none of them have landlines and rarely answer their phones to unknown callers. Many people became aware of the ease of mail-in ballots last November who probably wouldn't have voted if they had to show up on Election Day. Both of these facts benefit Democrats and it could boost their turnout more than expected. Lately it does seem that when people are undercounted it has been Republicans so we shall see if the polls are wrong the other way this time. Maybe there's segments of both parties being underestimated, I don't know. Based on the polling, for a long time I was expecting 50-50, yesterday I was expecting 51-49 GOP, and today I think it might be 52-48 GOP. I still give AZ to the Dems, but OH/WI/NV/GA/PA to the GOP.
