Looking for the 2012 S&P forecast target from various analysts

[nutmeg]

Quote from nutmeg:

In addition, roughly speaking, based on the presidential cycle, the SnP averaged a gain of 9% in election years.

Here’s what the record shows:

The S&P 500-stock index price performance in the three months leading to a presidential election has been a good predictor of whether a sitting President would be reelected or replaced. Specifically, when the S&P 500 index rises from July 31 through October 31, the incumbent President ends up being reelected. But when the S&P posts a loss during that three-month period, the incumbent gets booted out of the White House.

 

[oldtime]

Quote from nutmeg:

Here’s what the record shows:

The S&P 500-stock index price performance in the three months leading to a presidential election has been a good predictor of whether a sitting President would be reelected or replaced. Specifically, when the S&P 500 index rises from July 31 through October 31, the incumbent President ends up being reelected. But when the S&P posts a loss during that three-month period, the incumbent gets booted out of the White House.

yeah but the problem is, by the time Oct 31 rolls around the line is so tight that you could probably make more money buying a long bond than paying the vig and betting on the next president

 

[oldtime]

but on a more serious note, when Dukakis won the democrat nomination the market rallied over 50 points, which was kind of a big deal back then

 

[hkrahra]

Quote from jack hershey:

A retrace happens within a trend.

BO of the RTL happens part way into a reversal.

Both of the above are legs of a different sort.

The trader who makes money by trend monitoring and analysis, simply trades from FTT to FTT.

Part of this strategy, plan and consistency is to hold through leg 1 and 2 of a trend and watch for the end of leg 3 @ the FTT.

Implied in this brief comment is the fact that a person holds through a retrace and decides and acts at the beginning of the reversal.

PA traders cannot do this since they do not have a leading indicator to signal the arrival of the reversal.

Both a retrace and reversal begin on peaking volume.

BO for PA traders is called a "confirmation" and it is also know to beginner types as the "second chance".

When a person monitors and analyzes trends, he know a retrace is between point 2 (peak of volume) and point 3 (trough of volume)

He also knows where the other volume trough occurs. It is on the BO of the prior RTL when going from point 1 (peak of volume) to point 2 (peak of volume

Thus on his log he always "knows that he knows". He is always anticipating "The Pattern".

In general, always what has to be taken into account is the possibility of a person being able to follow this or do this, or not. Ar some point in life, the existing belief system of a person prevents him form being able to learn, follow or do this. Give yourself the test. Draw the pattern form the above commentary.

How can you correct your current misunderstandings? You can't erase them. Joking by posting out of your ass doesn't change you mind and beliefs.

The BORTL is either coming out of the ass, and i still dont see, even after your comment, where is the purpose of monitoring BOes,exept of an illustrative matter.

You said: ''Both of the above are legs of a different sort.'';''Both a retrace and reversal begin on peaking volume.''

So how do you then differ them?Here is how:''The trader who makes money by trend monitoring and analysis, simply trades from FTT to FTT.Part of this strategy, plan and consistency is to hold through leg 1 and 2 of a trend and watch for the end of leg 3 @ the FTT."

So the point is to put all efforts to determine the FTTs.Who the fuck cares about the BOes of different sorts then?It`s not even an event.

You either confirmed yourself that the BORTL is coming out of the illustrative ass,or my logic is coming out of my ass.

You didnt show any evidence in your comment that BOes have a significant meaning in analysis.BOes are the consequence,not a cause.I`m sorry,Jack.

 

[nutmeg]

That's what he said:



"After sorting through thousands of pages of Wall Street’s 2012 outlooks, we discerned the most important point for equity investors: the consensus top-down forecast for the S&P 500 is 1,335, or a 6.2% gain (the bottom-up forecast is for a gain of 15.4% to 1,451)."

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from hkrahra:

The BO RTL is either coming out of the ass, and i still dont see, even after your comment, where is the purpose of monitoring BOes,exept of an illustrative matter.

You said: ''Both of the above are legs of a different sort.'';''Both a retrace and reversal begin on peaking volume.''

So how do you then differ them?Here is how:''The trader who makes money by trend monitoring and analysis, simply trades from FTT to FTT.Part of this strategy, plan and consistency is to hold through leg 1 and 2 of a trend and watch for the end of leg 3 @ the FTT."

So the point is to put all efforts to determine the FTTs.Who the fuck cares about the BOes of different sorts then?It`s not even an event.

You either confirmed yourself that the BO RTL is coming out of the illustrative ass,or my logic is coming out of my ass.

You didnt show any evidence in your comment that BOes have a significant meaning in analysis.BOes are the consequence,not a cause.I`m sorry,Jack.

Attached is a volume chart. There are two illustrations.

The lower one is more accurate.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from jack hershey:

Attached is a volume chart. There are two illustrations.

The lower one is more accurate.

Here is another chart showing the repition of the lower pattern on the first chart.

The BO of the RTL occurs twice on this chart. The place is the first and third trough.

 

[hkrahra]

I drew these patterns umptenth of times,Jack.I know what the BORTL is,i just dont see it as an event.

 

[jack hershey]

Quote from jack hershey:

Here is another chart showing the repition of the lower pattern on the first chart.

The BO of the RTL occurs twice on this chart. The place is the first and third trough.

Here is what price has begun to do and what its container could become.

At the end of a trend what happens is a Failure To Traverse (FTT). See pink vertical lines.

All you need to know to take profits is that the trend ended. With that ending a REVERSAL BEGINS. So right after you take profits, you REVERSE to begin a new profit taking.

IN the CW trading, the BO of the RTL could be considered either a beginning of a trade or a confirmation of a trade.

The attached Defines a REVERSAL. a reversal begins on neither the RTL nor the LTL. Notice the blue price movement begins at the pink lime. Also notice its price coordinant.

Who knows what the container slope will be? The BO on the RTL does not help to determine the slope either.

It does not take very much inspection to see that the first move of a trend involves the time to get to the RTL plus the time to get to the piont where the LTL begins. The CERTAIN THING KNOWN IS THAT THE VOLUME HAS MADE TWO MOVES. PEAK TO TROUGH AND TROUGH TO PEAK.

 

[jack hershey]

To finish the trend, volume repeats the same process and PRICE DOES NOT REPEAT THE SAME PROCESS.