Looking for profitable forex strategies...I'll pay or back someone, or partner up

B

BillySimas

My name is Ryan, I'm a former t-bond futures scalper turned forex trader, I live in Chicago. I've been watching and researching EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and AUD/USD. I've been backtesting swing trading methods, but haven't found anything I like enough. If you have a profitable method and you'd like to share it, I'm looking for a trend following system with a 1-10 day holding period with a high success rate and very tight stops, I'm conservative and risk averse.

I'd really like to either back someone or partner up with someone who shares some of the same ideologies and has the same personality and trades these markets. I'd actually be willing to work for free for a hedge fund in Chicago in exchange for training if that were possible. Anyone have any advice or willing to share ideas?

I recently tried backtesting the tunnel method for the forex market but the whipsaws were ridiculous, I don't see how this guy Vegas claims he can make any money. It may be marginally profitable but the success rate on any given trade is like 25%. But anyway, thanks in advance for anything you'd like to share.
 
Billy,

You are looking for a long term system, if you are going to hold for 10 days... in forex time periods of course. :)

No doubt the higher profits come from the longer holding periods, but then the stops have to be accordingly larger to accomodate the daily swings.

Each market has a slightly different personality. I think GBPUSD is the best when it comes to breakouts. Another market that is worth investigating is the EURJPY pair. It seems to trend well. These are my observations from the trend following back tests that I have performed.

Good luck.
 
Quote from BillySimas:

My name is Ryan, I'm a former t-bond futures scalper turned forex trader, I live in Chicago.

...

I recently tried backtesting the tunnel method for the forex market but the whipsaws were ridiculous, I don't see how this guy Vegas claims he can make any money. It may be marginally profitable but the success rate on any given trade is like 25%. But anyway, thanks in advance for anything you'd like to share.
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Why turn to Forex? What Vegas?

PS: I'm helping you to pump this thread up. :D
 
Also why not do FX futures since you are already quite familiar with futures. If you used any technical system, it should work on the FX futures as it worked on the bond futures....
 
Quote from BillySimas:

Depends on the success rate, the tunnel method I used briefly gave about 25 pips or so at the most.
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try currency futures. you may like them better.

surfer
 
Quote from BillySimas:

Depends on the success rate, the tunnel method I used briefly gave about 25 pips or so at the most.
More...

That would be a very good performance. Isn't it?

"What is the realistic profit goal from forex?"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=67565

Quote from late apex:

Let's put it this way: if you are trading $100,000 with 10:1 leverage, would it surprise you to learn that you need to average less than 1 pip a day on any of the XXX/USD majors, to realize 20% annual returns? ($20,000 for the first year, $24,000 for the second year, etc.; ignoring taxes, if any, and without withdrawals or deposits.)

Well, it's true. 0.77 pip a day, to be exact. This is taken from a spreadsheet I have, assuming only 48 weeks, or 240 trading days a year, with weekly compounding. (Go ahead, take those 4 weeks off... you've earned it.)

If you can average 5 pips a day instead... just 100 pips a month... that translates into 227% a year.

If you can average 10 pips a day instead... just 200 pips a month... that translates into 940% a year.

You'd better sit down... or lie down... while you're visualizing your ever-so-bright future, your glorious destiny, in your mind's eye...

The next logical question then might be: is at least 100 - 200 pips a month a realistic goal for a serious, passionate, dedicated trader with a $100K account, consistently over time? Absolutely, without a doubt. That, and much more. Now, what about the same earned pips, combined with 10:1 leverage all the time? Aah, that's a whole different ball game / skill level...
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Quote from optioncoach:

Also why not do FX futures since you are already quite familiar with futures. If you used any technical system, it should work on the FX futures as it worked on the bond futures....
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my experience does not support that. my intraday trendfollowing futures methods do not work that well on forex.

why do you think fx works as well as other marekts? just because it uses futures as a form?

i believe forex is a different game.
 
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