When you're talking about really long term trends (months to a year+), there are really only so many of these taking place at any given time, and they're caused by underlying macro shifts or factors - which these days mostly means whether governments/CBs are filling or draining liquidity from the system.
Looking for Long term trading ideas
- Thread starter lmseldin
- Start date
It makes more economic sense to have less office space. Our company used to occupy 10 floors when I was still working. They cut it to 3 floors, only for our legal department. Now, most of the legal department is working remotely. Chances are good, the company kept only 1 floor. Each floor was rented for $1,000,000 a month for each floor. That is a lot of monies saved. You can rent part of a floor real cheap for your staff to meet in say, once or twice a month. Also, use the small space for support to the company with IT workers occupying a few desks. There is a small company in the same building who subdivided the entire floor and has been renting out the whole floor space with rooms and sections of the floor. I imagine those renting out cubicles and rooms, or space, helps pay for most of the $1,000,000 a month rental.
lmseldin,
In order to fit your criteria...
_ What would you say qualifies for "ideas you think may work" - for example...
In order not to poach one of your hard earned strategies and so whether or not it backtested well, can you give an example of an idea that you have already found and backtested that fits your criteria?
_ Do you have an opinion on the statement 'what may work for Intraday charts does Not work for Daily charts?'
Last edited:
Here you go, wrote this but there is one pure fire simple way to get trend ideas, you wait for something meaningful to happen and then slowly take the inversion (Buffett being greedy), interesting event in April 2020 ending in April 2022 for nearly 700% or 350%pa, that probably counts!
How do normal day traders manage to profit 200-300% annually and hedge funds are able to return only 20-40%?
It’s simply scale but goes deeper, following on from other answers.
- It takes either experience in HFT, institutional or decades of trading to achieve those numbers which very few can do, even fewer can do it consistently, everyone else is faking it to make it.
- Hedge funds manage more money with investors having lower expectations reducing risk, this limits the returns profile to the normal 15–20%pa, they will split orders in to smaller chunks not to move the market against them.
- Actually a billionaire is created from someone who generates 150–200%pa return compounded for a decade or two, if it was not possible there really wouldn’t be any billionaires in a lifetime.
Don’t get me wrong, you can happily turn $1mil in to $2mil in one year, there is an entity I know that will help you set up a Family Office and do just that, you probably wouldn’t follow any of the rules but that is another matter entirely, yet that’s not really the point, if you have $1k you can lose it one month and make it back the next, if you have $1mil it may still take you a decade but you will lose it.
There are 56million millionaires in the world, that number does not change much each year, what does change is who those people actually are, for the statistics that doesn’t matter but for you it does, money just changes hands and then every 40yrs or so there is an inflation shock which takes out most of everyone, if you didn’t spend years planning for it like the people I know, it will be a train wreck.
If you take $1,000 and compound 200%pa for 10yrs you end up with $1million, if you take $1million at 20%pa after 4yrs compounded you end up with $1mil profit, after 10yrs compounded you end up with $1mil profit per year on $5mil capital, but it doesn’t help you whether you make 200%pa or 20%pa if an event comes along and obliterates your capital, everyone assumes it won’t happen to them, very few escape it no matter if they are an employee or a millionaire
If you spend 80% of your effort making money and 20% protecting it you are guaranteed at some point to lose it, if you spend 20% of your effort making money and 80% protecting it you may or may not lose it based on many factors you will find out afterwards via experience.
Whether you have $1k at 200%pa or $1mil at 20%pa the above does not care, it transcends net worth and returns profiles but as with everything in life, no one cares until after it happens at which point it’s too late and they have to start again, being more tired, more annoyed, and in a new set of dynamics, the number of millionaires does not change much, but who are the millionaires does change.
70% of Rich Families Lose Their Wealth by the Second Generation
A little honesty might help preserve the family fortune.
https://money.com/rich-families-lose-wealth/
The wealthy are just better at hiding small facts like the above, it does not mean it doesn’t happen to them in equal measure, because it does, the only difference being I know wealth managers, hedge fund consultants, and family office advisors who make sure that does not happen!
%%
FUN read, most of my reads dont net a billion .
But since you brought it up. Mark cuban sold stamps as kid; not a billion /LOL.
Forbes noted he sold Broadcast.com to YHOO for $5.7 billion/1999
I like the kid that climbed up the gasoline station pole + lowered the gasoline bids\TBP.
T] Thomas Boone Pickens said one of his bankers was like a wolverine, which is known for pissing on a lot of stuff it never eats/LOL
I enjoyed his billionaire book several times then gave it awaythis phenomenon is already understood.
%%
MOST likely get worse\
with all the underperforming tech stocks like META sector.
I remembered the approximate price move + real good volume, so i looked it up on the charts today.
URE went from almost $200 \down to $4.44, 1999\195 million shares. Mostly re + big bank real estate swaps now. Good downtrend in 2022, but skimpy volume, not liquid now on that.
WSJ+ Bloomberg [Edit =Blackstone, Blackstone,DEC]articles hint the pain maybe just started in commercial RE.
AS long as the Fed keeps raising rates + tech companies goof up more;
bears may do well.
Some called up Dave ramsey + asked ''why do REITs tend to do so badly\ even when interest rates were favorable ??'' Dave ramsey said ''hi fees''
Last edited:
I have poached from this family of funds for over 20 years. They do the research and I will glean some companies from them. Royce
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...einvest.com/&usg=AOvVaw2IiX44Y6JBJqJBN9br31av
They find value companies...They find management that is very good and who does not stick it to their shareholders. Many of the companies are niche (think a German box company), but others are growth. I weed though the top ten of each fund, about twice a year. Maybe a diamond in the rough...
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct...einvest.com/&usg=AOvVaw2IiX44Y6JBJqJBN9br31av
They find value companies...They find management that is very good and who does not stick it to their shareholders. Many of the companies are niche (think a German box company), but others are growth. I weed though the top ten of each fund, about twice a year. Maybe a diamond in the rough...
What about just using what the day traders use on a higher timeframe?
I.e. you can identify chart patters like head & shoulders, double-bottoms, cup&handle etc. also on a weekly or even monthly timeframe. Trading these formations should get you in the market for several months/years and the noise is quite low when drawing exclusively on a higher timeframe ...