Looking For Breakout or Trend following strategy

Daniel Hakimian said:
I have already checked this out, neither showed the results I wanted in the markets im trading.
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i will not sell you a system but i will give you one that will do what you want on the condition you share the results here good or bad and that you don't bill me for any losses you incur.

one other condition that you mirror trade an account that i will fund, benefactor to be named latter.

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tell me the markets you want to trade and if there are any other parameters

i can already tell you that 40 and 2:1 is going to be tough and very unconventional. meaning you may not find it logical but if you trust the stats, it can be done. the more details you provide the better chances of achievement.
 
MarkBrown said:
one other condition that you mirror trade an account that i will fund, benefactor to be named latter.
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lol funded with what? Of all the things that will never happen--this will never happen the most.
 
Daniel Hakimian said:
I'm in search of a position trading breakout or trend following strategy for either TradingView or TradeStation. If neither, I will need the formula explained. The strategy must meet the following conditions:

  • Win rate is at least 40%.
  • Average winning trade is at least 2x the average losing trade (or more).
  • No take profit feature.
  • I need examples of entries and exits.
  • Preferably trades between 5-35 times a year (This is not a full requirement)
If you have a strategy that fits these criteria, feel free to message me here, or reach out via email at danielhakimianbusiness@outlook.com or on Discord: danielhakimian. I'm willing to buy if it aligns with my requirements.
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Find a successful trader and study their methods.
Peter has been successful for decades.
He’s mostly a breakout trader.
https://twitter.com/peterlbrandt?s=21
 
MarkBrown said:
i can already tell you that 40 and 2:1 is going to be tough and very unconventional
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This is for sure: the 1:2 R requirement, in particular, will really make it terribly difficult.

A strategy with an R of 1.0 and a win-rate of 60% has the same profit factor as the one you’re looking for, and would surely be a much more likely find?

Why do you prefer to take fewer than 3 trades per month? I ask because that will make finding a statistically valid sample-size, over changing markets, with a decent degree of confidence, particularly difficult.

As others have rightly said above, the very few people who could meet the criteria you list surely won’t need or want to share their strategies.
 
I would imagine you would need a fairly robust set of metrics from multiple datas, and likely, a non-trivial understanding of probability theory to do this well.

Inter-market will be involved, and you'll probably have to use some proxies for hard to get data.
 
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My humble suggestion: Ask a different question.

No successful trader will give you their secret source even if you are willing to pay big bucks. Instead, ask for the analysis tools so you can develop your own secret source with them.
 
I would begin with the Turtle trading method by Richard Dennis. Checkout Livermore’s How to trade in Stocks and Tom Basso.

Core Elements of the Strategy:
  1. Entry and Exit Rules:
    • The entry is based on price breakouts. For example, in System 1 (S1), a long trade is initiated when the price exceeds the high of the last 20 days, while System 2 (S2) uses a longer 55-day breakout for entry. For short positions, the inverse is applied (prices breaking below the 20- or 55-day low). Exits are typically determined by trailing stops, like a 10-day low or 20-day low for long positions, ensuring traders ride the trend but cut losses early.
  2. Position Sizing:
    • Dennis emphasized risk management by adjusting the size of positions based on market volatility. A key metric was the "N" value, representing average daily price movement over the past 20 days. This helps traders scale their positions relative to the risk each market presents, preventing any single trade from damaging the portfolio significantly.
  3. Diversification:
    • The Turtles were trained to diversify across multiple markets (commodities, currencies, indices, etc.). This helped them spread risk and not be overly dependent on a single asset's performance.
  4. Discipline and Emotional Control:
    • Dennis instilled a strict adherence to the rules. This mechanical system minimized emotional decision-making, preventing traders from being swayed by short-term market noise or personal biases.
  5. Long-Term Perspective:
    • The strategy often involved holding positions for weeks or even months to fully capitalize on market trends, thus emphasizing patience and consistency in execution.
 
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Sekiyo said:
I would begin with the Turtle trading method by Richard Dennis. Checkout Livermore’s How to trade in Stocks.

Core Elements of the Strategy:
  1. Entry and Exit Rules:
    • The entry is based on price breakouts. For example, in System 1 (S1), a long trade is initiated when the price exceeds the high of the last 20 days, while System 2 (S2) uses a longer 55-day breakout for entry. For short positions, the inverse is applied (prices breaking below the 20- or 55-day low). Exits are typically determined by trailing stops, like a 10-day low or 20-day low for long positions, ensuring traders ride the trend but cut losses early.
  2. Position Sizing:
    • Dennis emphasized risk management by adjusting the size of positions based on market volatility. A key metric was the "N" value, representing average daily price movement over the past 20 days. This helps traders scale their positions relative to the risk each market presents, preventing any single trade from damaging the portfolio significantly.
  3. Diversification:
    • The Turtles were trained to diversify across multiple markets (commodities, currencies, indices, etc.). This helped them spread risk and not be overly dependent on a single asset's performance.
  4. Discipline and Emotional Control:
    • Dennis instilled a strict adherence to the rules. This mechanical system minimized emotional decision-making, preventing traders from being swayed by short-term market noise or personal biases.
  5. Long-Term Perspective:
    • The strategy often involved holding positions for weeks or even months to fully capitalize on market trends, thus emphasizing patience and consistency in execution.
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Tests have shown The Turtle Rules no longer work apparently.

The Market has changed, sped up.
 
Darc said:
Tests have shown The Turtle Rules no longer work apparently.

The Market has changed, sped up.
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Sure. Not saying it works but the fundamental principles stay the same. It’s a good starting point.
 
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